Oak's Corner: 2018 First Rounders

The Week That Was

With only two weeks left in the season after this weekend, in this section, I thought it would be a fun to take a glance toward next season. I like to think about the upcoming year in the last few weeks of the current one while it's fresh in my mind, and then totally shut it down until February or so to avoid any burnout. We'll look at the first round for next year, and in the next couple weeks, we will look at some overvalued and undervalued guys I see coming into 2018. Hopefully, this will be not only a fun read now, but also fun to reread when you start your prep for 2018. Note that these ranking will be slanted a bit toward an NFBC type league with no trading. In a trade league, I wouldn't be as likely to push up the top starting pitchers as much since I could deal with pitching later.

No. 1 Mike Trout – Sure, the injury this year has taken a chunk out of his overall numbers, but Trout has quietly (well, for him) been his same incredible self. Even though he has played in only 98 games, he still has 28 homers, 20 stolen bases and 83 runs scored. On top of that, he's hitting .321, his highest average in four years, and his freaking absurd 1.106 OPS is easily the highest he has ever posted. There is zero reason to get fancy in this spot, if you manage to snag the No. 1 pick in your draft, start your draft prep with whom to select at the 2/3 turn.

No. 2 Jose Altuve – With the new approach we've seen from a lot of hitters to hit home runs while striking out more, batting average can be difficult to find. Locking in an elite batting average (.338 or higher in three of the last four years) is supremely valuable, and average is only the start for Altuve. He's no longer a low-power guy as he has followed up his career-high 24 homers in 2016 with 23 already in 2017. He's still only 27, so the stolen bases should still be fine next year, and he has averaged 33 bags a year the last three seasons. Add in the runs scored hitting in the middle of that great Houston lineup, and you have as rock solid a player.

No. 3 Charlie Blackmon – At first glance, this may feel high for Blackmon until one looks at the ridiculous season Blackmon is putting up in 2017. Blackmon ranks top in the 10 in MLB in batting average, runs scored and homers, and is top 25 in RBI. His 43-steal season of 2015 appears to be an outlier, but it still helps that he tosses in 15 bases, and there's also upside in his profile for him to get 20 to 25 in any season. Also, there's the huge factor that Blackmon gets to play half his games in Coors Field. In 70 home games, Blackmon is hitting .388 with 22 homers, 48 and utterly amazing 76 runs scored. As long as Blackmon stays in Denver during the off-season and isn't dealt elsewhere, I have zero issue grabbing him with the third pick.

No. 4 Clayton Kershaw – Kershaw is the hardest guy for me to slot in the first round right now and I'll likely move him around a bunch before I draft in March. If I were confident that Kershaw would make 33 starts like in 2015, he'd be the No. 1 player on my board. But after only making 21 starts in 2016 due to a back injury, Kershaw spent time on the DL again this season with a back issue and will likely only make 26 or 27 starts. Of course, the positive side is how amazing those 24 starts have been, as Kershaw has posted a 2.12 ERA in 157 innings and has maintained an exceptional K:BB ratio at 188:28. He has had a little bit of an issue with homers this year, allowing 20 so far, but that 0.92 WHIP is such an enormous edge on most of the field. A healthy Kershaw is so fun to own, and even though he did miss time in 2017, he's likely to still hit 175 innings on the season.

No. 5 Nolan Arenado – The floor that Nolan Arenado gives fantasy owners earns him the fifth spot on my list. Arenado is headed toward another 35-plus homer and 130-plus RBI season and that also comes with an average consistently around .300. Much like Blackmon, Arenado gets a huge boost from Coors Field, and while many people have noted that Blackmon has more homers on the road this year, he still has 18 more runs, 17 more RBI and 34 more points of batting average in his games at Coors. This dude would be awesome anywhere, but getting 81 games in Coors makes him a beast that belongs in the top five.

No. 6. Paul Goldschmidt– Goldy doesn't play at Coors, but getting 81 games in Chase Field (where he has 1.105 OPS in 2017) is about as good as it gets outside of Coors. In an era where we don't see a lot of guys contributing across the board, Goldy is a guy who fills the stat sheet. While hitting .309, he has already topped 100 runs and RBI, hit 34 homers and added 17 stolen bases. He isn't going to match the 32 steals that he had in 2016, but it's nice to see him return to his 30-plus homer ways and he's very likely to set a career high in big flies this season. His hard hit rate dip to 37.5 percent that we saw in 2016 has been fixed, and he has responded with a career-high 45.5 percent hard hit rate this year.

No. 7 Mookie Betts – When a player gets drafted very early and disappoints a little bit, I love jumping in the next year at a lesser price. Betts' ADP was second overall this year (just edged out Kershaw), and how far he falls down the first round will be very interesting to follow this spring. After a 2016 where Betts hit .318 with 31 homers and 26 stolen bases, the homers have dropped to 21 so far, but the big concern is the average dropping down to .262. He still has 24 steals, 90 runs and 88 RBI, not bad for a perceived down year, but the decline of the Red Sox offense overall definitely hurt his counting categories. His hard hit rate is actually up a touch to 34.9 percent, and while soft contact is also up a bit to .19 percent, his BABIP of .266 (it was .310 and .322 the past two seasons) has hurt his average. He's 24 with a lot of speed, so I'm confident that BABIP is coming back up (especially since he has not suffered a dip in his hard contact) and it will bring the average back with it. I love the across the board production that Betts provides, and if his ADP falls in the nine to 11 range like I think it will, I likely will be trying to grab a spot in the middle of my drafts to start my squad with Betts.

No. 8 Trea Turner – Turner is the second toughest guy for me to rank in the first round, as I often have trouble figuring out where to slot guys who get a majority of their value from stolen bases. However, Turner isn't a true rabbit, as he projects to hit 15-plus homers while hitting between .280 and .290. Turner missed two months of the season with a broken wrist due to a wild Pedro Strop pitch and has still managed to swipe 40 bases this season. Turner was a monster for a half season in 2016 after his call up and has been really valuable this year in a little over half a season, so while it's dangerous to just double his production, it's scary to think about what a full season could look like for Turner, especially hitting atop the potent Nats lineup. It is very plausible to project a .290 – 120 – 15 – 60 – 70 line from Turner if he were to play 150 games, and that's a line that would be truly massive in any fantasy league.

No. 9 Bryce Harper – While Harper possesses as much upside as anyone in baseball and is still only 24, three out of four of his seasons Harper's final stat line hasn't lived up to the draft price. Last season, he played 147 games, but there were reports of a shoulder injury and he hit only .243 while hitting 24 homers. In 2014, he injured his thumb sliding into third base and misses 60-plus games, and this season (he was having a great season at .326 with 29 homers) he slipped on first base in mid-August, and it doesn't appear he will be providing any further fantasy value this regular season. The 2015 season obviously sticks out when staring at his profile as he hit .330 with 42 homers to win the National League MVP. A key reason why I can't put Harper higher on my list is that after stealing 21 bases in 2016, he dropped back down into the single digits this year and there will likely be a time (and it might have started this season) where the Nats won't want to risk him stealing bases very often. Harper is immensely talented, and I think we'll see him go in the top seven of most drafts, but I can't place him quite that high.

No.10 Corey Kluber – I have a feeling this won't be popular, but I'm slotting Kluber as my second starting pitcher ahead of Max Scherzer. Kluber has lifted his game to a new level in 2017, ramping up his strikeout rate to 11.84 K/9, easily the highest of his career. At the same time, he has dropped his walks to a career low of 1.66 BB/9. Granted, he does pitch in the AL, but the AL Central doesn't scare me for offenses right now, aside from the team he plays on. The ERA is fantastic at 2.44, but the WHIP is really where he really kicks it in at 0.87. He has elevated his swinging strike rate way higher than any other point in his seven seasons, as it currently stands at 15.7 percent. He has an outside shot at 275 strikeouts depending on how much Cleveland throws him down the stretch; truly a remarkable season.

That completes my top 10 and I'll hit on the rest of my first round quickly along with a few honorable mentions.

No. 11 Giancarlo Stanton – Yes, Stanton has had a number of injuries over his career, and that keeps him out of the top 10, but no one in baseball possesses his power upside when healthy. He will likely hit 57-plus homers while driving in around 120 runs, all while boosting his batting average to .280. There are talks of him and his massive contract getting traded this offseason, so this rank could move up a down a notch based on where he plays, but with the way he hits homers, the park isn't going to matter too much unless he happens to land somewhere extreme.

No. 12 Max Scherzer – Scherzer is fantastic, and I have nothing negative to say about him and would love him as the anchor of my pitching staff, but I just like Kluber a little bit more. Scherzer has a career-high 12.01 K/9 strikeout rate so far this year, but the walks have crept up a touch to 2.54 BB/9, his highest mark in his three seasons with the Nationals. His one issue is homers, as he has topped 1.00 HR/9 for the third straight year, but he manages to dominate around them and has been under a 3.00 ERA in all three years in Washington. If I find myself with a backend pick in a 15-team draft, Scherzer will be a target for me.

No. 13 Joey Votto – Votto is an incredible hitter, and there is very little cooler in baseball than seeing him choke way up with two strikes and still find a way to smoke a ball into the gap. He has increased the power this year with 34 homers and he's going to drive in and score over 100 runs, but with all that factored in of course, his batting average floor is what makes him a first-rounder for me. Votto has hit .314 or higher in the past three seasons and is hitting .316 this year even while hitting for more power. His strikeout rate this year is one of the more impressive stats this season, as he has dropped it more than six percent to 11.3 percent, and if you play in an PBP leagues, move him up further as that .451 OBP is just impossible. I would love to pair Votto with a high power bat at the half-turn where I could absorb a bit of the batting average risk, possibly someone like Aaron Judge

No. 14 Manny Machado – Machado had a rough first half, hitting only .230, but has responded with a huge second, hitting .322 in his last 58 games with 14 homers and 44 RBI. His stolen bases have come back a little bit as he has swiped nine bases this year after posting a goose egg in the category in 2016. Machado hits in a great home park, and at only 25, I think a 40-homer season is on the horizon, as 2017 is the first year where he has topped a 40 percent hard hit rate. He will lose his shortstop eligibility in 2018, but for me he's still a first rounder at third base.

No. 15 Chris Sale – Sale rounds out the first round as he has surpassed all expectation in his first year in Boston. His strikeout dip in 2016 has been completely forgotten as he has punched out 278 batters already and has a legit shot at that magical 300-strikeout season. He has a 2.76 ERA pitching in the AL East and he has crushed any concerns about a lefty tossing in Fenway Park. The WHIP is also elite at 0.95, and this will be the third consecutive season that Sale has topped 200 innings. The dude is a rock and a great ace to start your pitching staff.

Honorable mention (These guys could all end up sneaking into the top 15)

Aaron Judge – If I had to predict it now, I would guess Judge will have an ADP in the top 15 when all is said and done next season. After two homers Thursday, he now has 43 on the year to go with 112 runs scored and 96 RBI, but the strikeout rate is still 31.6 percent and he has just enough batting average risk to keep him barely out of my top 15.

Kris Bryant – He is so good and only 25, but the power has dropped off a bit this year, as his hard hit rate has dropped to 32 percent.

Jose Ramirez – No one outside of Cleveland loves Jose Ramirez quite like me and he contributes across the board and will be eligible once again at second and third base. He's making a strong push for a top three spot in the AL MVP voting right now.

Freddie Freeman – Freeman would have had a truly gigantic year if not for the wrist injury, but he's still going to hit nearly 30 homers with a .320 average in two-thirds of a season.

J.D. Martinez – Martinez is a free agent, but if he re-signs with the D'Backs, he could sneak his way into the back half of the first round. His line since being traded to Arizona is crazy as after homering Thursday, he now has 23 homers and 49 RBI in 49 games.

Carlos Correa and Francisco Lindor – Two young stud shortstops who both could end up in the back half of the first round. Two years ago, I never thought Lindor would be close to a 30-homer guy, but here he is. Correa might have locked himself into the 2018 first round if he hadn't been injured.

FAAB Feelings

Luis Perdomo: Perdomo has been a target for me for some of his two steps this year, and I'm back to looking at him this week. He's scheduled for two starts at home, but they do come against good teams in Arizona and Colorado. Perdomo has been fairly mediocre on the season with a 4.61 ERA and a strikeout rate less than 7.00 K/9. However, he's in the midst of a solid stretch over his last five starts. In that run, he has thrown 30 innings with an ERA of only 3.30 and four of the five starts have been against team in the playoff mix, facing the Cardinals twice and Nationals and Diamondbacks once.

While an initial glance at his two opponents this week show two teams that are in the top 10 in runs scored and OPS, a closer look shows two teams who aren't nearly as impressive away from their home parks, as both the Rockies and D'Backs rank in the bottom 10 in OPS in road games. Perdomo is risky and he doesn't have a huge strikeout upside, but two start guys are hard to find this week and I like him if you need one, especially considering both games are at home.

Jed Lowrie: I admit that as an A's fan, I was very disappointed when they brought back Lowrie,and I preferred they give those at-bats to a young player since they were rebuilding. Lowrie was coming off a year where he hit only two homers in 338 at-bats and he hadn't hit over .265 in three seasons. Aside from a down July where he hit .220 with one homer, Lowrie has been quite solid all year and is on an especially nice roll so far in September. With regular at-bats sometimes hard to find on the waiver wire in September, Lowrie is someone hitting in the middle of a lineup that is also eligible in the middle infield spot. Even with Thursday's 0-for-5, Lowrie is hitting .333 in 42 September at-bats with 10 runs and 5 doubles. Lowrie isn't going to provide speed or much power (only has 12 homers), but he's swinging it well right now and has an average of .276 on the year with 78 runs scored. He's only owned in 53 percent of NFBC 12-team leagues and makes for a nice option down the stretch if you need average or runs.

Jose Martinez: The Cardinals have a crowded OF/1B situation, but Martinez is forcing his way into the lineup every day with his hot hitting. After two more hits on Thursday, Martinez is now hitting .318 on the season with 13 homers in only 261 plate appearances. Martinez has never been a big power hitter in the minors, but he does hold a nice batting average of .294 across his 890 minor league games. Martinez is 28, so he isn'ta big prospect, but at this point, we are just looking for someone who can help us for the final two weeks of the season.

Since the All Star break, he has hit at a .361 clip with eight homers and 23 RBI in only 108 at-bats. He only pinch hit in a lot of those games, but he has now started the last 12 games for the Cardinals, with only one hitless game in that span and two or more hits in six of them. Not only is he playing every day, but he is also hitting in the middle of the Cardinals lineup. Martinez is only 33.9 percent owned in NFBC 12-team leagues and presents a very nice opportunity to grab a hot hitter in the middle of a solid lineup; you can't ask for more than that off the waiver wire at this point of the season.

A Closer Look

Sean Doolittle's issue over the past three seasons have been injuries, as he spent a significant amount of time on the DL in 2015 and 2016 and had a short stint on the DL this season. But wow is he good when he's healthy. Even when he was active, the A's insisted on using Santiago Casilla as their closer even as Doolittle posted a 3.38 ERA and an unreal 0.66 WHIP in setup duty. Upon his trade to the Nationals, Doolittle was slotted into the closer role immediately and has stabilized what was a tough spot for Washington all year. Since his trade on July 16, Doolittle has converted all 18 of his save opportunities while sporting a 2.25 ERA. His strikeouts are actually down with the Nats at 9.00 K/9 and his walks are up (well, for him) to 2.3 BB/9. Those 24 innings are obviously a small sample and one would think those rates will both improve back closer to his usual career rates. Doolittle is signed through 2020 and barring the Nats signing a free agent closer, his impressive run with the team so far would seem to lock him into the role for 2018. With a job and health, Doolittle is someone I would love as my second closer on 2018 rosters.

For all the hype surrounding Andrew Miller after his 2016 season and playoffs, Cody Allen is on the verge of completing his fifth consecutive season with an ERA under 3.00. Allen's biggest issue has been his walks, but he has those at a career-low 2.97 BB/9 while maintaining an excellent strikeout rate just over 12.00 K/9. Allen had a bit of an odd 2016 where he allowed a lot of hard contact (35.3 percent), but not a lot of fly balls, but has gone back to his prior ways of limiting hard contact (27.9 percent) and being a fly ball pitcher. Allen's name is rarely mentioned when we discuss the top closers (I know, I left him off a top 10 list earlier this season), but his consistency and role on a good, young team makes him a nice target in 2018 once the sexier closers come off the board.

Series of the Weekend

Royals at Indians. I've gone on too long as it is, so I will keep this short, but there is no way there could be any other choice here. As an A's fan, I selfishly should have been rooting for the Indians to not make it to 20 wins in a row, but this team is so fun to watch that I found myself just not being able to do it. Cleveland won their 22nd in a row in dramatic fashion Thursday night tying the game with two outs in the ninth against the Royals. Their streak will keep all eyes on this series as they send three streaking hurlers to the mound this weekend in Trevor Bauer, Carlos Carrasco and Corey Kluber. When you watching history in the making, it is obvious this is the series to tune into this weekend.