NBA Draft Kit: Rookie Preview

NBA Draft Kit: Rookie Preview

This article is part of our NBA Draft Kit series.

Traditionally, rookies tend not to be major factors in the fantasy basketball landscape. Of course, there are exceptions -- most recently, Karl-Anthony Towns and Damian Lillard -- but on the whole, even the most NBA-ready rookies rarely enter the league with the efficiency and well-rounded skill set necessary for fantasy stardom.

That rang especially true last season. The 2016 rookie class was perhaps the most underwhelming in recent NBA history, culminating in a bizarrely bland Rookie of the Year race that was nearly won by a guy who played 31 games. When the dust had settled, only three rookies finished within the top 50 at their position in total fantasy points. Malcolm Brogdon ranked 42nd among guards, Dario Saric placed 28th among forwards, and Joel Embiid finished as the 33rd overall center, though on a per-game basis he was a top-five player at the position.

For as discouraging as last year's rookies may have been, the 2017 class enters the NBA with as much fanfare as any in the last decade. Led by a slew of big-name guards, not to mention last year's No. 1 pick, the class goes 14 or 15 deep with players who project to either start or step into the rotation from day one.

Cream of the Crop

Ben Simmons, Philadelphia 76ers
We'd probably view the 2016 rookie class in a more favorable light had Simmons stepped foot on the court last season.

Even with his perceived deficiencies as a shooter, Simmons would be the

Traditionally, rookies tend not to be major factors in the fantasy basketball landscape. Of course, there are exceptions -- most recently, Karl-Anthony Towns and Damian Lillard -- but on the whole, even the most NBA-ready rookies rarely enter the league with the efficiency and well-rounded skill set necessary for fantasy stardom.

That rang especially true last season. The 2016 rookie class was perhaps the most underwhelming in recent NBA history, culminating in a bizarrely bland Rookie of the Year race that was nearly won by a guy who played 31 games. When the dust had settled, only three rookies finished within the top 50 at their position in total fantasy points. Malcolm Brogdon ranked 42nd among guards, Dario Saric placed 28th among forwards, and Joel Embiid finished as the 33rd overall center, though on a per-game basis he was a top-five player at the position.

For as discouraging as last year's rookies may have been, the 2017 class enters the NBA with as much fanfare as any in the last decade. Led by a slew of big-name guards, not to mention last year's No. 1 pick, the class goes 14 or 15 deep with players who project to either start or step into the rotation from day one.

Cream of the Crop

Ben Simmons, Philadelphia 76ers
We'd probably view the 2016 rookie class in a more favorable light had Simmons stepped foot on the court last season.

Even with his perceived deficiencies as a shooter, Simmons would be the easy No. 1 fantasy rookie in most seasons. But he enters a situation in Philadelphia where his own teammate might be his stiffest competition for Rookie of the Year. That, combined with the return and hopeful health (fingers crossed) of Joel Embiid make Simmons difficult to assess.

Even so, he'll play a prominent role for a coach who could very well deploy him at three or four positions. And while he won't be a dominant scorer from day one, Simmons should be a very good passer and rebounder with the potential to provide rare assist numbers for a rookie forward.

Markelle Fultz, Philadelphia 76ers
Fultz faces virtually the same question marks as Simmons when it comes to role and team construction. After a dominant statistical season at Washington, Fultz has the makings of a multi-category monster, but whether we truly see that unleashed remains to be seen. Fultz may be as talented as point guards like Kyrie Irving, Derrick Rose and John Wall, who each excelled as No. 1 picks, but he's unlikely to be handed a high-usage, unquestioned-centerpiece role right away.

Lonzo Ball, Los Angeles Lakers
One of the most unique prospects in a while, Ball will face enormous expectations as the new face of basketball in Los Angeles. A strong Summer League showing only poured gas on that fire, and it's hard not to be excited about the style of play Ball seems to naturally instill whenever he's on the floor.

From a fantasy standpoint, Ball should be an excellent source of assists, who rebounds well for his position and supplies three-point volume. Ball was an efficient shooter at UCLA, but his jumper didn't look great in Las Vegas, and he doesn't get to the free throw line at a high rate.

Dennis Smith, Dallas Mavericks
It's usually a good sign when a player goes ninth overall and is crowned the steal of the draft almost immediately. Smith is a perfect fit for a Mavs team looking to transition out of the Dirk Nowitzki era without bottoming out, and he should be given plenty of offensive responsibility right away.

North Carolina State played a lot of ugly basketball last season, but Smith had one of the most impressive individual campaigns of any player in the country. Dallas has a couple of nice young guards in Seth Curry and Yogi Ferrell, but Smith's ceiling is substantially higher, and he should leapfrog both players right away.

Josh Jackson, Phoenix Suns
Jackson will have a good chance to start at the three right away for the Suns, pairing with Devin Booker to form one of the better young tandems in the West. Jackson isn't nearly the scorer Booker is, but he's lightyears better as a defender and doesn't get enough credit for his rebounding and playmaking ability. If Jackson can prove the concerns about his jumper are overblown, he'll be among the most ownable fantasy rookies.

De'Aaron Fox, Sacramento Kings
After moving on from DeMarcus Cousins, Sacramento has quietly assembled a stable of young talent, with Fox as the cornerstone. He'll face questions about how his rather slight frame will hold up in the NBA, and the lack of a reliable three-point shot -- 24.6% 3PT at Kentucky -- is a glaring issue, but Fox is as competitive as they come on both ends and should see plenty of opportunities as a rookie.

Perhaps the biggest unknown is how Fox will fit alongside veteran free agent addition George Hill. The two are expected to start together, though Hill could end up cutting into Fox's touches.

Wait and See

Jonathan Isaac, Orlando Magic
Physically, Isaac is one of the most impressive rookies in the class, but he's not as NBA-ready as Fultz, Ball, Jackson, Tatum, or Smith. At 6'10" with a smooth shooting stroke, Isaac has the frame and tools to be a lethal stretch-four who defends multiple positions. His ceiling is as high as any player in the 2017 class, but Isaac lacked assertiveness, at times, in college and likely won't be a significant fantasy factor as a rookie.

Lauri Markkanen, Chicago Bulls
Like Isaac, the player who went one spot later will also face a stiff learning curve. Markkanen could be the best shooter in the draft, but he was inconsistent on the glass at Arizona and struggled to contain faster, more physical big men on the defensive end. The good news is Markkanen will be given plenty of opportunities for the bottomed-out Bulls, but he may not provide much more than high-volume three-point shooting.

Frank Ntilikina, New York Knicks
The biggest mystery among the lottery picks, Ntilikina will be groomed as the Knicks' future at the point guard position. The question is whether he'll have a large enough role as a rookie to generate anything more than nominal fantasy value. With apologies to Ron Baker and Ramon Sessions, New York isn't exactly loaded at point guard, but the team could still opt to bring Ntilikina along slowly

Malik Monk, Charlotte Hornets
Charlotte may not be the ideal situation for his immediate fantasy value, but the Hornets desperately need scoring off the bench, and Monk is capable of scoring in bunches at a moment's notice. With Nic Batum and Jeremy Lamb ahead of him on the depth chart, though, Monk likely won't be an overly productive fantasy commodity in Year 1.

John Collins, Atlanta Hawks
The good: Collins is a top-tier athlete who scores and rebounds at a high rate. The bad: He logged just 24 total assists and attempted only one three-pointer in two years at Wake Forest. Even so, Collins is a fairly clear choice as the best fantasy rookie outside of the lottery, based almost entirely on his situation. The Hawks will be one of, if not the, worst team in the NBA next season, and they'll have little reason not to give Collins extended run at power forward. As of late-August, Ersan Ilyasova and Luke Babbitt are Collins' primary competition for minutes.

Other Notable Rookies

Jayson Tatum, Boston Celtics
Tatum is an extremely talented isolation scorer for his age, and while he's in the best pure basketball situation of any rookie, he's in one of the worst fantasy situations. The Celtics were one of the deepest teams in basketball last season and got even deeper on the wing this summer. Tatum will certainly have his moments, but at this point it's difficult to envision a path to a fantasy-relevant workload, even after Boston sent Jae Crowder to Cleveland.

Zach Collins, Portland Trail Blazers
Even though Portland traded up to grab Collins at No. 10 overall, he'll likely have trouble carving out a fantasy-relevant role for a team that's already inundated with frontcourt pieces.

Donovan Mitchell, Utah Jazz
Moving up to take Mitchell at No. 13 already looks like a savvy move by the Jazz. The Louisville product was one of the most impressive standouts in Summer League, but charting out where he'll fit with the Jazz as a rookie is rather discouraging. For as talented as Mitchell may be, the possibility of him usurping a deep group of veteran guards for consistent minutes seems unlikely. Like Collins, Mitchell is more of a dynasty league consideration at this point.

Jordan Bell, Golden State Warriors
An absolute steal early in Round 2, Bell fits exactly what the Warriors want from their big men on the defensive end. Bell is undersized, but he's a mobile, prolific shot blocker and above-average rebounder. While his impact as a rookie will be minimal, Bell has some intrigue as a longer-term prospect.

D.J. Wilson, Milwaukee Bucks
Wilson was a one-year wonder at Michigan after barely seeing the floor in his first two collegiate seasons. That makes him a bit of a risk, but the Bucks like his combination of athleticism, length and shooting. The 6'10" Wilson won't be much of a factor right away, but Jason Kidd has built a reputation as a coach who isn't afraid to turn to inexperienced players. Still, Wilson is firmly in dynasty-only consideration.

Harry Giles, Sacramento Kings
The former No. 1 overall recruit was once considered the second coming of Amar'e Stoudemire, but a series of major knee injuries have lowered his ceiling considerably. However, Giles showed enough during the pre-draft process to warrant a mid-first-round selection, proof of just how special of a prospect he was before the knee issues.

Jarrett Allen, Brooklyn Nets
Allen is in a somewhat similar situation to that of Collins, though he may be even more raw at this stage. Regardless, Allen should hold down a consistent role in one of the league's worst frontcourts. Brooklyn will be better this season, but that shouldn't prevent Allen from seeing consistent run as the backup to Timofey Mozgov. Will that translate to fantasy viability? Almost certainly not, but Allen is nonetheless an interesting long-term project.

Caleb Swanigan, Portland Trail Blazers
Another dynasty-only player, Swanigan simply faces too steep of a climb to regular minutes in a deep Portland frontcourt.

Kyle Kuzma, Los Angeles Lakers
The Kuzma hype is very real after he went full 2012 Josh Selby in Vegas last month. The Utah product looks every bit the part of an NBA talent, and certainly belongs on a roster, but it's naive to think he'll be a consistent presence in the rotation as a rookie.


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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Nick Whalen
Now in his 10th year with the company, Nick is RotoWire's Senior Media Analyst, a position he took on after several years as the Head of Basketball Content. A multi-time FSGA and FSWA award winner, Nick co-hosts RotoWire's flagship show on Sirius XM Fantasy alongside Jeff Erickson, as well as The RotoWire NBA Show on Sirius XM NBA with Alex Barutha. He also co-hosts RotoWire's Football and Basketball podcasts. You can catch Nick's NBA and NFL analysis on VSiN and DraftKings, as well as RotoWire's various social and video channels. Follow him on Twitter and Instagram @wha1en.
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