NBA Draft Kit: Predicting Possible Busts

NBA Draft Kit: Predicting Possible Busts

This article is part of our NBA Draft Kit series.

Anyone who plays fantasy sports, even at a casual level, knows that avoiding busts can be just as valuable as finding sleepers.

There are plenty of reasons a player can get slapped with the "bust" label: injury issues, age, team change, overachievement in the previous season. If your name is Rajon Rondo, you somehow managed to check off all four last year – though, in a twist of fate, here I am yet again talking myself into Rondo as a potential sleeper.

That doesn't mean that if you, I, or anyone else believes that a player will bust that they shouldn't be selected at all. Fantasy owners can fall into the trap of labeling someone and subsequently avoiding them to the point of absurdity.

Even if I'm not high on Reggie Jackson, I wouldn't hesitate to take him if he's clearly the best player on the board. Should unproven, 30-year-old rookie point guard Milos Teodosic be reached for? Probably not. Can you feel good about selecting him with your final pick in a standard league? Definitely.

At some point, the rewards begin to outweigh the risks.

With that in mind, let's take a look at at a handful of players at each position who should be approached with caution this draft season.

Guards

Dwyane Wade, Bulls
With the Bulls trading away Jimmy Butler for younger talent, it appears the organization is finally, if not reluctantly, moving into a full-blown rebuilding effort. As a result, coach Fred Hoiberg

Anyone who plays fantasy sports, even at a casual level, knows that avoiding busts can be just as valuable as finding sleepers.

There are plenty of reasons a player can get slapped with the "bust" label: injury issues, age, team change, overachievement in the previous season. If your name is Rajon Rondo, you somehow managed to check off all four last year – though, in a twist of fate, here I am yet again talking myself into Rondo as a potential sleeper.

That doesn't mean that if you, I, or anyone else believes that a player will bust that they shouldn't be selected at all. Fantasy owners can fall into the trap of labeling someone and subsequently avoiding them to the point of absurdity.

Even if I'm not high on Reggie Jackson, I wouldn't hesitate to take him if he's clearly the best player on the board. Should unproven, 30-year-old rookie point guard Milos Teodosic be reached for? Probably not. Can you feel good about selecting him with your final pick in a standard league? Definitely.

At some point, the rewards begin to outweigh the risks.

With that in mind, let's take a look at at a handful of players at each position who should be approached with caution this draft season.

Guards

Dwyane Wade, Bulls
With the Bulls trading away Jimmy Butler for younger talent, it appears the organization is finally, if not reluctantly, moving into a full-blown rebuilding effort. As a result, coach Fred Hoiberg has little incentive to overwork the 35-year-old. Plus, if -- or seemingly when -- Wade is bought out, somewhat of an uncertain role would follow.

While Wade is clearly still a starting-caliber guard – 18.3 points, 4.5 rebounds, 3.8 assists and 1.4 steals per game last season – it doesn't appear he'll a priority within the organization. If he gets bought out, there's no guarantee that he'll be immediately snatched up by a team willing to give him 30-plus minutes a game, either.

Milos Teodosic, Clippers
There's plenty of reason to be excited about Teodosic. For years, he's been one of the top players in Europe and has great size (6-foot-5) and vision at the point guard spot. Think Ricky Rubio with a better jumpshot and a hint of Jason Williams.

The fact that Teodosic was promised the starting job does wonders for his fantasy value, though that doesn't necessarily mean starter's minutes. Defensively, Teodosic will be a liability, and that could ultimately cap his ceiling. He'll also be backed up by a starting-caliber point guard in Patrick Beverley an infinitely better defender and solid three-point shooter. Teodosic has the upside to be a strong source of assists, but given some of the other question marks, he'll be a polarizing player in many drafts.

Dion Waiters, Heat
Waiters started off extremely slowly last season before bursting onto the scene with arguably unsustainable numbers. Over his first 23 games, he posted averages of 13.0 points, 3.7 assists and 3.1 rebounds while shooting an atrocious 37.4 percent from the field and 31.0 percent from deep. During his final 23 games, Waiters averaged 18.7 points, 5.0 assists and 3.5 rebounds on 46.9 percent shooting from the field and an astounding 45.0 percent from deep.

Drafting Waiters based on his second half is probably misguided -- the Heat will be healthier this year, by default, and there's little to suggest that Waiters' second-half surge is sustainable over the course of a full season. Waiters is without a doubt still a productive fantasy asset, but his value could be inflated by recency bias.

Darren Collison, Pacers
Collison has been a consistent presence as a starting point guard in the NBA for the better part of his eight-year career. The 30-year-old boasts career averages of 12.7 points, 4.8 assists, 2.6 rebounds and 1.1 steals across 29.5 minutes per game. Last season, he shot a career-high 41.7 percent from beyond the arc on 2.6 attempts per game.

With that in mind, the Pacers are in a clear rebuilding phase after dealing Paul George and losing Jeff Teague in free agency. In addition to Collison, the Pacers also picked up a young, promising point guard in Cory Joseph from Toronto. While Collison is a quality starter, the Pacers may look to deploy Joseph as much as possible to gauge his potential as a future piece. As a result, Collison's minutes could tail off as the season goes on.

Avery Bradley, Pistons
While I'm generally high on Bradley as a fantasy commodity for this upcoming season, it's important to note that his value last season was inflated by a career-best 6.1 rebounds per game. That mark topped his previous high of 3.8 boards per game back in 2013-14.

The Celtics were a notably horrendous defensive rebounding team last season, so Bradley was asked to snag a disproportionate number of rebounds for a guard. Considering he'll join the Pistons, who feature glass-cleaner Andre Drummond, Bradley's rebounding numbers will likely come back down to earth. Since becoming a full-time starter back in 2012-13, he's posted an average of 3.6 rebounds per contest.

Honorable mention:Kris Dunn, Bulls; Reggie Jackson, Pistons; George Hill, Kings Isaiah Thomas, Cavaliers

Forwards

Anyone on the Bulls
The Bulls simply have too many young forwards to make sense of as draft season approaches. Paul Zipser, Lauri Markkanen, Nikola Mirotic and Bobby Portis are all 26 or younger -- only Mirotic is older than 23 -- and will compete for minutes on a nightly basis. The Bulls aren't necessarily trying to win games this season, so Fred Hoiberg's rotation could vary throughout the year. Attempting to guess which nights Portis will play 35 minutes and which nights he'll play 13 minutes will be a frustrating exercise, and the same could be said for the other three, though developing Markkanen, the centerpiece of the Jimmy Butler deal, may be more of a priority.

Jae Crowder, Cavaliers
Badly in need of a three-and-D wing, the Cavaliers -- assuming this deal ultimately gets done in some fashion -- will do everything they can to get Crowder on the court. That said, his natural position is the same as LeBron James' -- you may have heard of him -- and Kevin Love is locked in at the other forward spot.

Crowder could slide in as the nominal shooting guard, though that would mean moving J.R. Smith to the bench, which the Cavs may be reluctant to do. The bottom line: Playing alongside James, Crowder's shooting numbers should be sustainable, but he's not guaranteed to match last season's workload.

Ryan Anderson, Rockets
Anderson continued his work last season as one of the league's best stretch-fours, finishing ninth in total threes made (204) and shooting 40.3 percent from deep en route to 13.6 points per game. That's about all the fantasy value he typically provides, however, as he averaged just 4.6 rebounds per contest.

Anderson is a strong fit in Houston's run-and-gun system, but he remains one of the worst defenders in the league at his position. Houston loaded up on frontcourt defenders this summer, bringing in P.J Tucker and Luc Mbah a Moute, meaning Anderson could see his role diminish, by default. He's still the best long-range shooter of the three, but Tucker hit 40 percent of his three-point looks as a member of the Raptors, and if that proves to be even remotely sustainable, his two-way ability could give him the upper hand.

LaMarcus Aldridge, Spurs
While the fit in San Antonio hasn't been seamless, Aldridge has still been a productive fantasy player. He averaged 17.3 points, 7.3 rebounds and 1.9 assists per game last season, though his field-goal percentage fell from 51.3 to 47.7.

His workload of 30-plus minutes per game could be in jeopardy this season, however, after San Antonio signed Rudy Gay over the summer. Gay is a bit of a question mark as he works back from a torn Achilles, but if he's healthy, it's not hard to imagine him spending considerable time in the frontcourt next to Kawhi Leonard.

James Johnson, Heat
Last season, Johnson had the elusive breakout season by a 30-year-old. As the Heat dealt with a myriad of injuries all over the roster, Johnson was given increased responsibility as a ball handler, almost out of necessity. Over his last 34 appearances, Johnson averaged 14.8 points, 5.0 rebounds, 4.2 assists, 1.4 blocks and 1.2 steals across 29.3 minutes per game, making him one of the most well-rounded fantasy options available.

While his ability to play multiple positions should keep him on the floor, it may be tough to replicate last season's production, assuming the Heat are even a little bit healthier. Perhaps the biggest impetus is the return of Justise Winslow, whose extended absence last season is what opened the door for Johnson to take off.

Honorable mention:Zach Randolph, Grizzlies

Centers

Cody Zeller, Hornets
With the addition of Dwight Howard over the offseason, it'll simply be difficult for Zeller to find minutes conducive to fantasy production. He'll still have a prominent role as the backup to Howard, but the two are virtually unplayable in tandem considering Zeller shot just 22-of-67 (32.8 percent) from 10 feet and out last season. It's possible that Frank Kaminsky, a far superior floor-spacer, ends up cutting into Zeller's minutes, as well.

DeAndre Jordan, Clippers
I have little doubt about Jordan's ability to maintain his level of rebounding (13.8) and shot-blocking (1.7) from last season, but the loss of Chris Paul could have major implications for his offensive production. Per NBA.com/Stats, Jordan received 30.7 percent of his passes from Paul last season and shot 80.3 percent on attempts stemming from a Paul pass. In short, Jordan's life on offense will be much harder without easy lobs from the best pick-and-roll point guard in the league.

Tyson Chandler, Suns
Chandler played in just 47 games last season while dealing with a personal matter and an ankle injury, and he was eventually shut down completely after the All-Star break as the Suns shifted into full-on tank mode. Though his best years are behind him, Chandler still has massive upside as a rebounder, as he recorded 14 games last season with at least 15 rebounds. The question is whether he'll play enough games for that upside to manifest as fantasy value.

While Chandler projects to open the season as the starter, the Suns' fate in the uber-competitive Western Conference could be sealed by the break, so Phoenix may again have little incentive to prioritize Chandler's role.

Honorable Mention:Joel Embiid, 76ers

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Alex Barutha
Alex is RotoWire's Chief NBA Editor. He writes articles about daily fantasy, year-long fantasy and sports betting. You can hear him on the RotoWire NBA Podcast, Sirius XM, VSiN and other platforms. He firmly believes Robert Covington is the most underrated fantasy player of the past decade.
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