This article is part of our Survivor series.
Let's take a look at Week 3:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PATRIOTS | Texans | 32.60% | 762.5 | 88.41% | 3.78 |
| PACKERS | Bengals | 31.10% | 385 | 79.38% | 6.41 |
| Steelers | BEARS | 12.30% | 310 | 75.61% | 3.00 |
| Dolphins | JETS | 8.40% | 245 | 71.01% | 2.43 |
| EAGLES | Giants | 3.50% | 240 | 70.59% | 1.03 |
| Broncos | BILLS | 2.40% | 150 | 60.00% | 0.96 |
| PANTHERS | Saints | 2.00% | 250 | 71.43% | 0.57 |
| Ravens | Jaguars*** | 1.80% | 180 | 64.29% | 0.64 |
| Rams | 49ERS | 1.20% | 125 | 55.56% | 0.53 |
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
*** Game in London
There's only one double-digit favorite this week, the Patriots, and if you agree with the Vegas numbers, they're a clear pick over the Packers who have roughly equal ownership, but lower odds. The closer call would be the Steelers, but I have the Bears keeping that game close, so my choice is fairly easy this week.
My Picks
1. New England Patriots
The Texans have a good defense and could ugly it up, but if the Patriots get a lead, it'll be hard for DeShaun Watson to come back on the road. I give the Patriots an
Let's take a look at Week 3:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PATRIOTS | Texans | 32.60% | 762.5 | 88.41% | 3.78 |
| PACKERS | Bengals | 31.10% | 385 | 79.38% | 6.41 |
| Steelers | BEARS | 12.30% | 310 | 75.61% | 3.00 |
| Dolphins | JETS | 8.40% | 245 | 71.01% | 2.43 |
| EAGLES | Giants | 3.50% | 240 | 70.59% | 1.03 |
| Broncos | BILLS | 2.40% | 150 | 60.00% | 0.96 |
| PANTHERS | Saints | 2.00% | 250 | 71.43% | 0.57 |
| Ravens | Jaguars*** | 1.80% | 180 | 64.29% | 0.64 |
| Rams | 49ERS | 1.20% | 125 | 55.56% | 0.53 |
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
*** Game in London
There's only one double-digit favorite this week, the Patriots, and if you agree with the Vegas numbers, they're a clear pick over the Packers who have roughly equal ownership, but lower odds. The closer call would be the Steelers, but I have the Bears keeping that game close, so my choice is fairly easy this week.
My Picks
1. New England Patriots
The Texans have a good defense and could ugly it up, but if the Patriots get a lead, it'll be hard for DeShaun Watson to come back on the road. I give the Patriots an 88 percent chance to win this game.
2. Green Bay Packers
I still think the Bengals are dangerous, and I expect them to bounce back this week with a new offensive coordinator - there's just too much talent on that team. That said, the Packers are tough at home, and the Bengals' offensive line is still a problem. I give the Packers a 78 percent chance to win this game.
Notable Omissions
Miami Dolphins - I think they'll handle the Jets on the road, but it's Jay Cutler's second game with the team, and the Dolphins defense is nothing special.
Philadelphia Eagles - If the Giants don't get creative on offense, you can use the Eagles. But with Odell Beckham likely to be approaching full health, the Giants could exploit the weakest part of the Eagles defense, their secondary, and the Giants defense is good when it's not stranded on the field all game.
Carolina Panthers - Their defense has been great, as they're winning even with Cam Newton playing badly, and while Newton should get going against a weak Saints defense, I'd stay away from a potential shoot-out with Drew Brees in a divisional game.
Pittsburgh Steelers - Mike Glennon is terrible, but Ben Roethlisberger has basically been Glennon-level on the road the last three years, and the Bears defense isn't that bad.
