This article is part of our Beat the Cap series.
Beat the Cap: Adventures in Stacking
Stacking is a common strategy in daily sports. Having multiple players from a team in a favorable matchup has all kinds of benefits. There are risks, though, especially if you don't take into account the settings of the site you're playing on.
The viability of stacking largely depends on your site's scoring settings. Plus/minus rating and power-play points are the two most important stats to consider.
However, it is also important to determine which night's are best to stack on, and which players present the most upside.
The Ebb
Plus/Minus Rating
FanDuel includes plus/minus, so stacking a team has a wide variance of possible outcomes. There was a lot of profit if you stacked Tampa Bay on Monday, for example. It was a popular stack, too. Ryan Callahan, Steven Stamkos and Victor Hedman should have been widely advised plays. They were a plus-five combined, which is essentially a five-point bonus.
Another popular stack Monday night was Anaheim. While they obviously didn't have the offensive outburst the Lightning did, Corey Perry, Ryan Getzlaf, Patrick Maroon and Sami Vatanen all registered a point. However, they posted an even plus/minus rating, and therefore didn't get any 'bonus' points.
FanDuel players need to be mindful of the complete opposite outcome, too, though. P.K. Subban, Max Pacioretty and Tomas Plekanec would have been worthwhile plays entering Monday's contests, however they posted a negative-one plus/minus rating combined. Having multiple players with a minus rating can kill a daily team.
Statisticians have long argued the validity of plus/minus, and for good reason, however as a locked-in setting in FanDuel contests ignoring it is unadvised. There is a large boom and bust potential when stacking a team in FanDuel.
Draft Kings does not include plus/minus, so it is an entirely different approach when targeting your stacks. Without the fear of having points deducted, you're able to be more aggressive targeting goals and assists.
On Draft Kings you can focus on where the goals are going to come from. High scoring games present the best opportunities for fake points. The previously mentioned quartet of Ducks and the Montreal trio fared a lot better on Draft Kings than FanDuel on Monday night. Obviously, a Tampa Bay stack was the top play, however the difference was much smaller on Draft Kings.
Stacking a line or team is a worthwhile strategy for both sites. The degree of benefit is just different. The potential downfall and reward is much greater on FanDuel.
Power Play Points
Another significant difference between the two major sites is the inclusion of power-play points in FanDuel's scoring settings. Draft Kings only has a bonus for short-handed points, something you shouldn't consider in your lineup strategy. Short-handed points are far too random to place any weight on their occurrence when constructing your lineups.
When stacking on FanDuel, extra emphasis should be placed on power play units and not just line combos. Their settings create excellent profit opportunities. Andrew Shaw and Vladimir Tarasenko are on their team's No. 1 power-play units, for example, but are both a notch down the depth chart at even strength.
It is still important to consider power-play ice time on Draft Kings, though. Approximately a third of NHL goals are scored with the man advantage. However, the upside is limited for finding players whose usage is similar to Shaw and Tarasenko, sticking with the examples above.
Know Your Contest
How you assemble your lineup should largely depend on the contest you are in. The amount of players from a specific team you roster, and how many teams you attempt to load up on should vary, too.
In cash game contests, it is unwise to max out the player limit on a single team, the majority of the time at least. Instead, minimize your risk by using sets of two players from a line, or power play unit. Monday night, Stamkos and Callahan, Getzlaf and Maroon, and Kyle Turris and Clark MacArthur serve as examples of this approach.
In a large tournament contest, minimizing risk usually lands you in the middle of the pack. Going all in on Tampa Bay would have been a great strategy Monday night. Having an entire lineup of players from different teams can win, however you're more likely to win a tournament on the heels of a Hedman-Stamkos breakout, which was the case in a lot of contests Monday night.
If you're looking for a safe reliable lineup to cash in a 50-50 contest, multiple sets of linemates is advised. In large tournaments grabbing an entire forward line is very much in play. Think about the points Henrik Sedin, Radim Vrabata and Daniel Sedin posted Saturday night. Pairing the Canucks' top-line with Sidney Crosby and Patric Hornqvist would have cashed in the majority of contests.
Stacking an entire line is extremely risky, though. Monday, the Ducks scored five goals, but Perry, Getzlaf and Maroon only scored a point each. Even in the best matchup, when the favorite claims a convincing win, your players might not factor into the scoring. It happens, so the degree of your stack should depend on the goal of your contest.
Remember, too, the favorite doesn't always win.
Game Slate
Another important consideration when stacking line combos and power-play units is the amount of players available in the contest. How many games there are is an important part of lineup assembly.
The more games in play, the less viable stacking multiple players from a team is in cash games. Again, it is all about balancing upside and risk. When there are 12 games on the docket, having the majority of your players on two teams puts all your pucks in two buckets.
In tournament play, there are no holds barred. However, you'll also want to think about separating yourself from the masses, especially when there are a lot of games in play. The example of stacking the Canucks' line against Edmonton on Saturday night is perfect.
The majority of daily players were focused on top players from the Blackhawks, Kings, Penguins and Sharks on Saturday. Most had solid games, too. However it was the Canucks, Devils, Capitals and Islanders players who might have rewarded more, because they likely had a lower ownership percentage.
In large tournament contests, being contrarian is a high-risk, high-reward strategy. Missing the money by a point is the same as finishing last. Daily fantasy isn't a beauty contest, either. Aim to assemble the most upside possible, not a middle-of-the-pack lineup filled with middle-tier talent.
On nights with five games or less, stacking is inevitable. You'll want to downgrade your contrarian approach, too. Target two or three off-the-radar players to diversify from the masses, but not an entire lineup.
The Flow
Determining a favorable matchup for players is a difficult task early in the season. It will become clearer, though. Here are a few ways to begin identifying where the best value lies for selecting multiple players from the same team.
Road Trips: Similar to picking on teams on the wrong end of back-to-back games, teams that are nearing the end of a long road trip often present a nice buying opportunity for players on the home team.
Weak Goaltending: This is somewhat obvious, but just because a backup is starting doesn't mean it is a plus-matchup. There are some weak starting goalies. Winnipeg, Carolina and Buffalo are early season targets.
Line Matches: There are excellent defensive and two-way players capable of shutting down top scorers. It never hurts to take a shot on a team's No. 2 line. Chicago, St. Louis, Pittsburgh, San Jose and Los Angeles have six options in play nightly.
Weak Penalty Killers: This is the easiest to project. Some teams are better with the man advantage, and some teams are better killing penalties. It is a rare night when you cannot find a strong power play facing a weak penalty killing team.
High-Scoring Games: You want your goaltender involved in 1-0 games, not your forwards. Soon we'll have an excellent idea of which teams are more prone to high-scoring affairs. The Leafs, Avalanche and Islanders are good places to start, though.
If you have additional questions or would like to see anything specifically covered in Beat the Cap contact me in the comments below or via Twitter @naparker77.
