This article is part of our FanDuel NHL series.
The NHL season is going into its third week, which means some situations are starting to flesh themselves out. There is starting to be enough of a sample to where it is possible to draw some basic numbers. Things like zone starts can have a significant impact on the ability for any hockey player to succeed, and those numbers are starting to have some meaning.
Most "advanced" stats still don't have a large sample to make even basic assumptions, however, so at this point of the season, a lot of daily fantasy value is tied to opportunity. With that in mind, here are this week's value picks (all under $4,000 except the goalie).
Right Wing
Devante Smith-Pelly, Anaheim ($3,600)
The top-line left wing position in Anaheim is one to be highly coveted. It was supposed to go to Dany Heatley, but then he injured himself in the preseason. Then. it was Patrick Maroon's gig, but now he's out a month with a knee injury. It was then passed on to Matt Beleskey, who has since been replaced by the fourth member of that line in the last four weeks, Smith-Pelly.
Let's get one thing clear: Smith-Pelly has been absolutely awful in puck possession through his time with Anaheim. That is something that usually leads to more minuses than pluses, and that's a problem on FanDuel. Granted, it's a sample of 81 games that spans four seasons, but he's been bad in that regard at every turn -- sometimes with favorable offensive zone starts, too. Nonetheless, as long as Smith-Pelly is on the top line with Ryan Getzlaf and Corey Perry, he deserves to have some attention paid to him in daily fantasy. He's also managed some second-unit power-play time.
Remember to keep an eye on RotoWire's depth charts. Seeing as the top line left wing position has been a mostly-revolving door this year, this situation can change quickly. Until that time, though, Smith-Pelly is a cheap option to get some share of the top line in Anaheim without paying a premium.
Center
Jori Lehtera, St. Louis ($3,100)
There were some non-NHL free agent signings in the offseason that could have some fantasy impact this season. Jiri Sekac in Montreal was one, and most certainly, Jori Lehtera is another.
The first breakout game for Lehtera came over the weekend, as he posted a goal and two assists on Saturday night. If the name isn't familiar, Lehtera was drafted in 2008 by St. Louis and played a few games in the AHL. Mostly, though, he's spent his time in Finland and Russia since being drafted. Over his last three seasons in Russia's Kontinental Hockey League, Lehtera put up 118 points in 125 games (with 79 assists). That's no joke of a league, either, as former NHL sniper Ilya Kovalchuk had 40 points in 45 games last season.
What will be a boon to Lehtera's value are two things. First, Paul Stastny left Saturday's game injured and may miss some time (he sat out Sunday's game). That would boost Lehtera to second-line minutes. Secondly, in that scenario, Lehtera's linemates would become Vladimir Tarasenko and Jaden Schwartz. With Lehtera as the distributor, and the other two as finishers, it could be a very good line for the Blues. That goes without mentioning the second-unit power-play time Lehtera gets.
Left Wing
Michael Raffl, Philadelphia ($3,100)
The beginning of the season saw Brayden Schenn on the top line in Philadelphia alongside Claude Giroux and Jakub Voracek. That didn't last too long, though, and it appears that position now belongs to Raffl.
Raffl went undrafted, but was signed by the Flyers after a 46-point season (in 49 games) for Leksands in Sweden's top professional league. He had an up-and-down first NHL campaign in 2013-14, but one trend did emerge: Claude Giroux had better results with Raffl on his line than without him. Together, the two of them had a CorsiFor% of 56% while Giroux dropped to 52.4% without him. CorsiFor measures puck possession through shot attempts at 5-on-5, and anything above 55% is considered a very good number. Even though the Flyers look to be poor defensively, it gives hope that Raffl might be able to avoid taking too many minus ratings most nights.
The downside to Raffl is that he hasn't earned power-play time yet. But for a punt play at a wing position, there are worse places to be than alongside Giroux and Voracek.
Defenseman
Jason Garrison, Tampa Bay ($3,800)
Jason Garrison wasn't close to my first choice for a value play among defensemen this week. I would have chosen Tom Gilbert (Canadiens), but he's being buried with tough zone starts. I also would have liked to include Mirco Mueller (Sharks) as my top choice, but FanDuel hasn't added him to the player pool yet. Finally, Columbus's Tim Erixon is listed as a left winger, even though I'm pretty sure he's never played there in his professional career. That leaves Garrison.
The big news out of Tampa Bay is that their star defenseman, Victor Hedman, left the game Saturday night against the Canucks with an apparent hand injury, and will be out of the lineup for the rest of the road trip, which will span the whole week. That's unfortunate, because out of their four contests, Tampa plays Calgary, Edmonton, and Winnipeg. Those are some pretty tantalizing offensive matchups.
Garrison was acquired in the offseason and is a player with a booming slap shot from the point. It's safe to say he was a bit unlucky last season, shooting just 3.9 percent; from 2009-10 through 2012-13 (236 games), he shot 7.7 percent, or almost double his 2013-14 rate. That gives hope to a rebound in production for this season. With Hedman out of the lineup, there's potential that he plays top power-play minutes for the Lightning, which is a great place to be. As always, check the RotoWire depth charts to make sure on game days.
Goaltender
Eddie Lack, Vancouver ($6,900)
It showed something this week when Eddie Lack got the start against Tampa Bay, the second game of a back-to-back, when the first team Vancouver played was Edmonton. It demonstrated that coach Willie Desjardins wouldn't be afraid to use Eddie Lack in tough games, but more than that, it showed that the Canucks would likely be rotating goaltenders in back-to-back situations.
Vancouver has some tough matchups this week with three road games, the first two of which are in Dallas and in St. Louis. Their third road game is the second of a back-to-back, when the team rolls into Colorado after the matchup with the Blues. It would seem likely that the Avalanche game will be given to Lack, though of course, nothing will be for certain until the day of the game. Colorado hasn't been very good this year, ranking fourth-worst in shot attempts per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 (only Buffalo, Calgary, and Ottawa have been worse). Meanwhile, Vancouver is in the top-10 for fewest shot attempts allowed, with only Boston, Tampa Bay, Minnesota, Chicago, Detroit, and St. Louis being better at suppressing shots. (All this data, and much more, can be found at War On Ice.)
If Lack does get that start against Colorado, he makes the perfect tournament (not cash game) play. He's fairly cheap, plays for a team that suppresses chances, and will likely face a team that struggles to create opportunities for itself. Of course there's always the potential for a blowup, but such is the nature of tournament goaltender plays.
Good luck this week!
