This article is part of our Beat the Cap series.
Beat the Cap: Chasing the Third Wheel
A common daily hockey strategy is targeting a low-priced linemate skating with a pair of high-priced stars. The examples are endless, but the revolving door at left wing on the Ducks' No. 1 line is the prototype of the third wheel.
The fantasy stocks of Dany Heatley, Patrick Maroon, Devante Smith-Pelly and Emerson Etem have all witnessed a fleeting boost from their expected assignment alongside Ryan Getzlaf and Corey Perry.
The Penguins top six is another example. Then there are the top-line duties in Philadelphia, Washington and Dallas, too. You can add Nick Spaling, Blake Comeau, Tom Wilson, Eric Fehr and Troy Brouwer to the prototype list, along with the latest hot take Cody Eakin. Without star linemates, they all have lackluster fantasy appeal. Lining up with Evgeni Malkin has Comeau highly coveted.
It is a worthwhile pursuit and provides cap relief, but in 2014 the fan base is knowledgeable and informed. Beat writers in every sport are hip to the demand fantasy sports have placed on their information. There are no sleepers. No stone is left unturned.
As a result, the ownership percentages of these players are usually quite high. Expect Eakin to be a highly owned player Tuesday. His price is $4,600 on Draft Kings and $4,500 on FanDuel, which leaves plenty of profit potential, especially with Jamie Benn to his left and Tyler Seguin to his right.
Players with high-ownership percentages are typically unappealing GPP contest targets. However, because the majority of these third wheels carry an inherent risk, they're typically best suited for GPP contests. This contradiction has created a lineup dilemma. Is it advantageous to avoid Eakin in GPP contests Tuesday because of his likely high ownership?
Potentially, but the important takeaway is acknowledging the trend and keeping it in mind during your lineup-assembly process. An overarching strategy in fantasy sports is zigging where others zag. Resisting the lure of a low-priced winger on a top line is now an opportunity to do just that.
A closer look at third wheels
The reason Perry and Getzalf, Benn and Seguin and Claude Giroux and Jakub Voracek stick together as duos is their proven chemistry and success. The phrase three's a crowd is fitting, and head coaches around the league have acknowledged a commitment to keeping pairs together over trios.
This often limits the upside of the final addition to a line. They're also the least skilled and offensively capable, in almost every case. For every Filip Forsberg there are 10 Brian Gibbons. Chasing the right winger who skated with Sidney Crosby and Chris Kunitz was a constant for daily gamers last season. This year, it was Gabriel Bourque who started on Nashville's top line before Forsberg cashed in on his opportunity.
Additionally, while the above mentioned third wheels skate with top-tier talents at even strength, they typically don't with the man advantage. 20 to 25 percent of all goals are scored on the power play, too. Furthermore, in tight games, teams will often shift lines and assignments based on offensive or defensive needs.
Teams also strategically match their top defenders against the opposing team's top players whenever possible. While it is nothing new for Getzlaf, Etem has rarely faced the top defensive players from opposing teams. There is less time and space and some players take longer to adjust, and some players can't adjust.
Finally, there is also the reality that sometimes a line doesn't stick. Just because a player skates on a line during the morning skate and pregame line rushes doesn't mean he'll spend the game, the first period or even a shift with that line during the game. A player might also play the entire game and post a huge zero. Last Thursday, Tom Wilson posted a bagel on Draft Kings, despite 18:10 minutes of ice time and regular duty with Alex Ovechkin and Nicklas Backstrom. It happens.
All of this isn't to say these third-wheel types should be avoided. Just realize they're becoming trendy, and they're risky. High-risk, high-reward players are staples for GPP lineups, but they're more valuable when the ownership percentage is low.
Last week, the notion of weighting the pros and cons of a player was touched on. Price and linemates are excellent starting points for adding a player to your roster, but if those are the only two you're clinging to, you might have better options.
Essentially the strategy is dependent on a more expensive player being the offensive catalyst, and the low-priced option siphoning off value. Make the more expensive player the priority, if you're convinced they're capable of scoring. Obviously, cost is a factor, but the point stands, target talent you're confident in, not fliers you're gambling on.
The reason the strategy is frequently employed is because it works. Though, in the ever evolving daily racket it is beneficial to be ahead of the curve. It is especially important in contests with tilted payouts and few winners.
Take the time this week to assemble a few lineups you consider to be more suited for cash games and enter them in free head-to-head contests. Compare the results to your GPP contests and also check the ownership percentages. See if there are any significant trends or outliers. Expect to find your more balanced lineups often doing just as well or better than the ones filled with high-risk options.
Please, feel free to send me a free challenge, too. My username is the same as my twitter handle on Draft Kings, FanDuel and Fantasy Aces. I'm easy to find and usually create a number of free contests a day, too.
If you have additional questions or would like to see anything specifically covered in Beat the Cap contact me in the comments below or via Twitter @naparker77.
