This article is part of our Frozen Fantasy series.
Goal scoring is up. Mid-1990s up. But can it be sustained?
Yes. And here's why.
It's all about twenty-first century shooter tutors. And I don't mean "flat" goalies.
For years, goalies have had individual skill coaches. It's little wonder they got good.
Real good.
One-on-one tutoring is the fastest way to improve your skills in everything from education to athletics.
Now, the best skaters have had individual skill coaches for their entire hockey lives. Their offensive skills are flat-out elite. And they've started to hit the NHL.
Have you seen Auston Matthews' release? #sizzle
Truly elite goalies will remain elite. But there will be far fewer of them than there was even a couple years ago.
The rest? Reversion to the mean, baybee. 1990s style.
Sure, scoring will decrease a wee bit over the course of the season. But on average, goal-scoring rates have only dropped an average of 0.2 goals a game since 2005.
The NHL has averaged 6.26 goals per game through the first 50 contests of the season. It was 1995-96 when that last happened.
That year, 12 players topped 100 points. Yum.
Goalies are about to be in big trouble. And that will make the very best, VERY expensive in traditional Yahoo! formats. Or any format for that matter.
Ditto the best scorers. Pretty soon, the way we build and maintain our fantasy teams will change.
Might as well start that thinking sooner rather than later.
Now let's take a look at who
Goal scoring is up. Mid-1990s up. But can it be sustained?
Yes. And here's why.
It's all about twenty-first century shooter tutors. And I don't mean "flat" goalies.
For years, goalies have had individual skill coaches. It's little wonder they got good.
Real good.
One-on-one tutoring is the fastest way to improve your skills in everything from education to athletics.
Now, the best skaters have had individual skill coaches for their entire hockey lives. Their offensive skills are flat-out elite. And they've started to hit the NHL.
Have you seen Auston Matthews' release? #sizzle
Truly elite goalies will remain elite. But there will be far fewer of them than there was even a couple years ago.
The rest? Reversion to the mean, baybee. 1990s style.
Sure, scoring will decrease a wee bit over the course of the season. But on average, goal-scoring rates have only dropped an average of 0.2 goals a game since 2005.
The NHL has averaged 6.26 goals per game through the first 50 contests of the season. It was 1995-96 when that last happened.
That year, 12 players topped 100 points. Yum.
Goalies are about to be in big trouble. And that will make the very best, VERY expensive in traditional Yahoo! formats. Or any format for that matter.
Ditto the best scorers. Pretty soon, the way we build and maintain our fantasy teams will change.
Might as well start that thinking sooner rather than later.
Now let's take a look at who caught my eye this week.
Jonas Brodin, D, Minnesota (1 percent Yahoo owned) - Cast as a defensive specialist, Brodin is now a Bruce Boudreau disciple. Gabby pushes an open, free-wheeling game and that's exactly what this smart and mobile puck mover needs to take his game to another level. And so far, so good. Brodin is on a three-game, three-assist streak heading into the weekend and he's on track to obliterate his 19-point career mark (2013-14). He'll still err on the side of shutting opponents down, but it's clear he can jump up into the rush and deliver. Do you have room for a 35-point defender on your team? That could be where Brodin lands this season. You might as well benefit.
Louis Domingue, G, Arizona (6 percent) - Surprise, surprise – Mike Smith is injured. Again. Domingue filled in quite admirably last season when Smith had his last ouch and he'll do that again now. His first few outings were sketchy to say the least. But Friday's 28-save effort against the Isles gave me a bit of hope. Smith was seen wearing a brace on his left knee, so it's more than "day-to-day." Stash Domingue and insert him once the Yotes find their legs.
Darren Helm, C, Detroit (6 percent) - Don't look now, but Helm has four goals in his last four games and five points in five games overall. And he's getting power play time. Helm has never scored more than 15 goals and 33 points in any one season, so this point-per-game pace will not last. But I'm buying what he's selling right now, particularly as a third-line pivot that's wheeling and dealing with Gustav Nyquist and Thomas Vanek.
Chad Johnson, G, Calgary (11 percent) - Uh-oh – is there a goalie controversy in Calgary? The Brian Elliot experiment fell harder than a guy stepping on the ice with skate guards on. So, back-up boy Johnson stepped up and has delivered a .923 save percentage and 1.88 goals-against average in two games. Unfortunately, that production came from games with Vancouver and Buffalo. Spit. Still, he's stealing games, so snag him and then trade him to Brian Elliot's owner as insurance.
Jordan Martinook , LW, Arizona (3 percent) - Martinook is a former junior sniper who has struggled to find that game as a pro. That is, until now. He has two goals and two assists in his first four games. Ultimately, he profiles as a physical, third-line guy who can score a little, not a lot. But short-term, Martinook is versatile, cheap and semi-productive. There are worse options.
Victor Rask, C, Carolina (14 percent) - Rask or Elias Lindholm? Lindholm or Rask? Lindholm had the higher draft spot and the so-called higher potential, but my money is on Rask, who just happens to be on one of the best lines in hockey right now. He and linemates Jeff Skinner and Lee Stempniak each have five points in four games. Rask has three goals. He's worthy in every format and should be owned in more than every one-in-seven leagues.
Matt Read, RW, Philadelphia (3 percent) - Read is riding a three-game, four-goal streak heading into weekend play. He's never returned to the height of his 24-goal rookie season, but that might change this year. Mind you, I'm not holding my breath on a 30-year-old winger who's only gotten worse, not better, over time. But a streak is a streak and I have to give credit where it's due. Read is a cheap addition to your roster if you need to Red Bull your roster.
Brandon Sutter, C, Vancouver (3 percent) - The Orcas have four wins to start the season. But that streak is held together with dental floss and chewing gum – they look awful. The losing is about to begin, but it's still worth milking a hot streak. And that's what Sutter is on. He has one goal, three assists and 12 shots in his last three games. I'd use him as an injury backfill for a couple of games and then drop him. Fast.
Patrick Wiercioch, D, Colorado (1 percent) - I'm taking his production with a big shaker of salt. After all, how much stock can you possibly put in a defenseman rejected by Ottawa who suddenly finds salvation somewhere else? It's Ottawa, for gosh sake – if you can't fit in that Swiss cheese system, then where can you? But he has managed four points, including a goal, in his first four games. It will not last, but he's worth scooping up, especially if you're trying to backfill Kris Letang or another puck mover.
Nail Yakupov, RW, St. Louis Blues (20 percent) - Yakupov has two goals (three points) in five games with the Blues. He had eight goals in 60 games last season in the Oil Patch. Do you need to know anything else? #changeofscenery
Back to the scoring.
I'm re-energized. Watching hockey is fun again. And that means fantasy is about to be a whole new game.
Maybe not early 1990s new or (be still my heart) early '80s, but still damn sweet.
I gotta go check up on my goalies.
Until next week.
