This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
Sunday is the last full slate of MLB games before the All-Star break begins with festivities taking place in Seattle this week. Many of the 30 MLB teams have played about 90 days of the 162-game marathon schedule, and there have been many disappointing and exhilarating results for their fans.
In the AL East Division, all five teams have posted winning records, with the last place Boston Red Sox (47-43) only four games out from earning a Wild Card playoff berth. The results are vastly different in the AL Central, where only one team, the Cleveland Guardians (45-44), has a winning record and that by the slimmest of margins. In the AL West, the Texas Rangers (52-38) have held onto first place and lead the reigning World Champion Houston Astros (50-40) by just two games.
The most surprising team this year has been the Cincinnati Reds (50-40), who lead the NL Central by two games over the Milwaukee Brewers (48-42). The Reds were not expected to challenge for even a Wild Card berth entering the season, but the front office decided to bring up a few of their top players from the best farm system in MLB and it all came together.
When Elly De La Cruz was called-up, he also called up Reds legend Eric Davis to ask permission to wear his #44 jersey and Davis said yes to the request. Cruz has honored the opportunity and the #44 on his jersey is more like a Superman logo. In just his 15th game, De La Cruz hit for the cycle, and just yesterday he stole 2nd, 3rd and home in a two-pitch span to become the second player since 1961 to steal three bases in a single at-bat. The video is priceless.
Cincinnati Reds at 
Milwaukee Brewers
The Reds' winning run kicked off on June 10th when they started a 12-game win streak. They lost the next three games but have since won nine of their past 11. That all adds up to a 21-5 record since June 10th, averaging a +108-underdog wager and earning a highly profitable 60 percent ROI. The record is second only to Atlanta, who have posted a 21-4 record while averaging a -173 wager and earning a solid 26 percent ROI. The pricing of these two teams reflects the fact that the betting community still has doubts about whether the Reds are serious contenders, meaning the Reds remain a highly undervalued team to bet on down the stretch.
The Pitching Matchup
Left-hander Wade Miley (5-2, 3.36 ERA, 1.151 WHIP) will be on the hill for the Brewers. He has been solid this season but is coming off a less-than-average start in which he allowed four earned runs and nine hits in a 7-6 loss to the Chicago Cubs. He will be making his sixth day start, a split in which he is a mediocre 2-1 with a 4.50 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP spanning 28 innings of work.
For the Reds, right-hander Ben Lively will be making his first start since suffering a pectoral strain on June 20th. His rehab work has been solid and he will not be under any pitch count for this game. In his previous seven starts, he has compiled a 4.42 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP, including 13 walks and 43 strikeouts spanning 40.2 innings of work. He relies on six pitches starting with a 92 mph fastball and then mixing in an 88 mph cutter, 80 mph slider, 85 mph changeup and 76 mph curveball. The key for Lively is to get through the first inning cleanly. He's allowed seven of his 21 earned runs and four of his 10 home runs in the first inning.
The Reds are a team that has no fear and shows only confidence no matter what the game situation may be. They have won 65 percent of their games this season coming from behind; no other team since the 1923 Red Sox have been this resilient.
An In-Game Betting Strategy
So, if you see the Reds trailing in this game during the first three innings of action, consider betting them. In fact, I plan on using this in-game betting strategy after the Sll-star break when they take on the Brewers again in a three-game set in Cincinnati.
Trends and Angles
- The Reds are 26-10, the best record in MLB, following two straight games in which they committed no errors this season.
- In games following a Reds win, Cincinnati is 31-18 while averaging a +120 wager, the third-best winning percentage in such situations.
- Coming off a come-from-behind Reds win, the Over is 22-10 this season, a 69 percent record.
o If priced as the dog, the Over is a stellar 17-4 for 81 percent winning bets this season.
MLB Best Bets for Reds at Brewers
- Reds Moneyline (+105 at DraftKings) — place 80 percent of the intended bet before the game starts, then look to add the remaining 20 percent if the Reds fall behind in the first three innings
- Over 9.5 runs (-105 at DraftKings)
