Mound Musings: Arms to Watch in the NL East

This second installment of pitchers to watch heading into the 2016 season moves over to the National League East. Over the coming weeks, I'll throw out a few names, by division, to consider for your mound corps. The objective is uncovering value. Lower cost with upside is the key. Let's get right to it with:

Seven Arms to Watch in the NL East

Noah Syndergaard (NYM) - Syndergaard has the hardest fastball among starting pitchers in the game today and maintains that zip deep into games. Add a mound presence far beyond his years, a biting curveball and a handy change-up, and you have all the tools for a top tier starting pitcher. "Thor" only occasionally tosses his respectable slider, but that's OK, it saves wear and tear on his arm, and hitters still have to respect it. It's true Syndergaard won't go cheap in any draft, but his price might be softened just a bit as owners try to acquire Matt Harvey and/or Jacob deGrom. He's built to throw 200-plus innings, and he misses bats while throwing strikes. Yes, I am high on him. I am a HUGE Harvey fan, and I like deGrom a lot, but if I can only own one Mets' starter, Syndergaard gets the nod. The discount won't be large, but I do think he will out-earn his salary in most leagues this season.

Wei-Yin Chen (MIA) - Here's my high value choice for the NL East. He's not going to be an ace, or even a No. 2 on most fantasy staffs, but I have a hunch he'll provide a lot of solid innings for his owners, and those innings might come at a reasonable price on draft day. Chen is extremely consistent because he has excellent command and solid stuff. He moves out of the offense-laden AL East and a pretty nice hitters' park and will now toil in the National League, in a pitcher's paradise, and he'll get extra helpings of starts against the Phillies and Braves. That's a recipe for success. Lastly, he switches from an organization that doesn't always get the most out of their arms to one that has an excellent track record with starting pitchers. At 30, he's not a developing kid, but he could still benefit. I'd love to have Chen in the middle of my rotation.

Stephen Strasburg (WAS) - I don't think people have stopped believing in his ability, albeit there was some hand-wringing by owners when his strikeout rate plunged briefly. The fear (and price inhibitor) is his injury history. He made two more trips to the disabled list last year, and he was only able to log 127 innings. He still maintained his excellent control with a low walk rate, but he did miss inside the zone more often, which lead to a less than Strasburgesque ERA (3.46). It should be noted, his FIP was a sparkling 2.81, so bad luck was a part of that inflated ERA. I'm hope my opponents will be more focused on Max Scherzer when shopping Nationals pitchers, but I'd take even a small discount and hope for 200-plus innings. It seems like he's been around for a long time, but with the injuries, he has posted a relatively light workload. Strasburg is still figuring out how to maximize the effectiveness of his arsenal, and that's scary. And, due to enter free agency next winter, he's pitching for a paycheck on top of everything else.

Zack Wheeler (NYM) - Once upon a time, Wheeler was ranked ahead of Harvey, DeGrom and Syndergaard on the pitcher's prospect list. Keep that in mind on draft day 2016 as he's been out of the mind's eye for a while now. In 2014, Wheeler developed elbow problems and opted to pitch through them. Bad idea. By the time they looked again his elbow was a train wreck and Tommy John surgery cost him all of last season. He's on the value list here for a couple reasons. First, he won't be back on the mound for the Mets until June or July. They are going to take it easy on that elbow. Then, having been out so long, he might have some rust to work through. Obviously, he only works in leagues with a deep enough bench to stash him for three months, but with the dearth of quality pitching, fantasy owners (and potentially the Mets) could be very happy to welcome Wheeler back up on the hill. When he returns they won't overwork him, but he could be much more useful to you than the waiver wire fodder that will probably be the alternative. Don't overpay as even at his best I put him a notch behind the Mets' other standout starters, but he's worth a flyer.

Joe Ross (WAS) - Ross swept through three levels in the organization last year, ending up with 77 innings for the big club. He's the kid brother of Tyson Ross, and there are some similarities in appearance and arsenal. Pitching for one of the "haves" (as opposed to the "have nots") the Nationals should provide him with plenty of support. He was devastating against right-handed hitters, but there is a flip side to that coin, and adjusting will be the key to his long-term success. Ross' changeup is a work in progress, and he will need that pitch to come along if he is to avoid being battered by lefties. His other pitches look solid, and there are signs the change is improving. He throws strikes -- maybe the biggest difference between he and his brother -- so he should give you a decent WHIP with a modest strikeout rate. I think there's a good chance he breaks camp in the rotation, and I think he'll perform at a level high enough to keep the spot even after top prospect Lucas Giolito arrives as the season moves into summer.

Aaron Nola (PHI) - On most major league teams, Nola would be a decent middle-of-the-rotation arm with upside. On the Phillies, he gets their "ace" tag. He came out of college as a well-developed starter capable of making an impact fairly soon, and that happened last season. Nola doesn't really even profile as a future ace -- he has a rather pedestrian fastball, and compliments that with decent breaking pitches and a fair changeup. Lefties can get the best of him, but his command allows him to work hitters and outperform his raw stuff. He's capable of an average strikeout rate, but on a team with multiple talent gaps, wins could be hard to find. Nola makes the list because I like to include at least one arm from each team in the division, and there is no one else in the Philadelphia rotation who excites me. Sometimes fantasy owners overlook pitches toiling for bad teams, so perhaps you can secure Nola for the back of your rotation to provide respectable innings, albeit without many wins.

Matt Wisler (ATL) - Wisler gets the nod as my super cheap flyer because I like his slider, I like the movement on his fastball, I hope (and believe) his changeup will improve and I needed someone in the Braves' rotation on my list. Like Ross and Nola above, the key to Wisler's value will be his ability to defuse lefty swingers. His numbers over 109 innings last season should drive his price down on draft day, but keep in mind he tended to be a feast or famine pitcher in 2015, and most of the ugly was a product of just a handful of outings. Wisler has a good work ethic and should improve as he matures so look for a better strikeout rate and less damage from lefties as his changeup becomes more reliable. Sean Newcomb probably has a bit more upside, but he may not arrive in Atlanta before later in the season, if then.

The Endgame Odyssey:

Here we'll cover some notes and observations on the closer scenarios across baseball. Over these six weeks, the focus will be on the division featured in the Arms to Watch.

With Drew Storen now in Toronto, Jonathan Papelbon is the closer with no real threat to his role -- at least as long as he stays in Washington. The Nats would probably like to see Blake Treinen mature into their future closer, but he needs to show he can handle hitters from both sides of the plate, so Shawn Kelley is likely to be Papelbon's caddy for a while. .. The Mets have had their late-inning gig settled long term with the lifetime ban of Jenrry Mejia. Jeurys Familia was always the better plan anyway, and Addison Reed will try to get his groove back as his primary set-up man. With the Mets' rotation, closing here could be a lucrative job. ... One of the most intriguing scenarios in the NL East could be in Miami. A.J. Ramos managed to do a fairly admirable job after taking over from Steve Cishek last year, but Carter Capps has the tools to move in if Ramos should stumble at any time. The biggest question will be the ongoing status of Capps' balky elbow. ... The rebuilding Braves should keep Arodys Vizcaino in the closer's role, but they'll also have senior citizen Jason Grilli available as long as he can stay healthy. ... Lastly, the Phillies is without a true closer. That said, someone has to pitch the ninth inning when they're leading. David Hernandez is the lukewarm choice, but don't be surprised if there is an ever-growing list of "closer's" for the Phillies as the season progresses. Looking for a deep sleeper? Maybe try Cuban-import Dalier Hinojosa or a guy I loved a long time ago, in a galaxy far, far away, Andrew Bailey.

Next week we'll look at Seven Arms to Watch in the AL Central.