This article is part of our The Z Files series.
As most you know, I handle the weekly pitching rankings for the site. I won't rehash the entire process but here's the thumbnail version: I start with my current season-long expectation, massage that for matchup and rank the projected weekly stats with respect to how they'll affect final standings.
Buried in that is the word "current". That is, in-season player projections are constantly updated. Most of the time, they're generated by a projection engine folding in current skills. However, occasionally I'll go back and retroactively change the initial projection if the algorithms aren't capturing the new skills fast enough. In short, I'm essentially admitting I botched the original projection and am fixing it.
Today, five pitchers whose initial projection has been improved will be discussed. They're listed in order of the level of the adjustment, greatest on top.
Nick Pivetta, Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies aren't talked about in the same realm as the Atlanta Braves, but they're amid a similar rebuilding effort. The Braves minor-league pitching is closer than the Phillies, so the Phillies needed a couple of surprises to emerge if they wanted to compete a little earlier; that is, while their emerging young hitters are still under club control. They may have unearthed a gem in Pivetta.
Recall, the 25-year old righty teased us last season, fanning nine Red Sox then 10 Cardinals in consecutive outings last June and whiffing 11 Padres in August before finishing the season with three solid efforts, the last two scoreless affairs.
As most you know, I handle the weekly pitching rankings for the site. I won't rehash the entire process but here's the thumbnail version: I start with my current season-long expectation, massage that for matchup and rank the projected weekly stats with respect to how they'll affect final standings.
Buried in that is the word "current". That is, in-season player projections are constantly updated. Most of the time, they're generated by a projection engine folding in current skills. However, occasionally I'll go back and retroactively change the initial projection if the algorithms aren't capturing the new skills fast enough. In short, I'm essentially admitting I botched the original projection and am fixing it.
Today, five pitchers whose initial projection has been improved will be discussed. They're listed in order of the level of the adjustment, greatest on top.
Nick Pivetta, Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies aren't talked about in the same realm as the Atlanta Braves, but they're amid a similar rebuilding effort. The Braves minor-league pitching is closer than the Phillies, so the Phillies needed a couple of surprises to emerge if they wanted to compete a little earlier; that is, while their emerging young hitters are still under club control. They may have unearthed a gem in Pivetta.
Recall, the 25-year old righty teased us last season, fanning nine Red Sox then 10 Cardinals in consecutive outings last June and whiffing 11 Padres in August before finishing the season with three solid efforts, the last two scoreless affairs. All told, Pivetta closed by allowing two earned in his final 17 innings, punching out 19 in that span.
However, a final 6.02 ERA and 1.51 WHIP tempered expectations entering 2018. Something between his 4.87 FIP and 4.26 xFIP from last season seemed reasonable. So, what changed?
As can be gleaned from last season's high points, strikeouts weren't the concern but rather high walks and high homers, a familiar refrain with young hurlers. To date, Pivetta has shown me enough to alter my expectations in that regard. This isn't to say he'll continue with a tidy 5.9 percent BB rate, but with a much-improved 67 percent strike mark, including an impressive 69 percent first pitch mark, Pivetta's control has improved markedly. The impetus for the gain is Pivetta's ability to throw his curve for strikes, resulting in a lower reliance on his fastball, rendering his entire arsenal more effective.
It should be noted that currently, Pivetta's 3.72 ERA is artificially high based on his 3.10 FIP and 3.29 xFIP. When everything settles, I'd expect something in between present and expected, which is a full run lower than most projected in the spring.
Tyler Skaggs, Los Angeles Angels
To be honest, I was bullish on Skaggs entering the season, so to be so high up on the list, he's really convinced me we're seeing a sustainable level of performance. That said, Skaggs isn't out of the woods with respect to health, not to mention stamina as the season progresses and he eclipses his career high of 133 innings, posted back in 2014. The early success of the Halos six-man rotation should aid Skaggs in both these regards.
Keep in mind, coming up originally with the Angels, and then with the Diamondbacks, Skaggs was considered a top pitching prospect, so it's not as if this is coming out of nowhere. Injuries, including Tommy John surgery, curtailed his development.
This far, Skaggs is doing exactly what you'd want with more punchouts and fewer free passes. Further, he's taking advantage of the Angels excellent infield defense by inducing more grounders. The fly balls Skaggs does surrender are protected by Angels Stadium and good outfield defense.
Contributing to Skaggs' success is increased use of his sinker and less reliance on his four-seamer. In addition, while his fastball velocity remains the same, he's slightly increased the delta between it and his secondary offerings. The new approach, in tandem with improved control and command, looks sustainable, altering my initial expectations.
As an aside, I could have written the same analysis for Andrew Heaney with very few edits.
Rick Porcello, Boston Red Sox
In 2016 he was lucky, just ask Kate Upton (like you have her on speed dial). Last season, he ranged between suck and a little unlucky. What's different this season for such a sucky guy to not only pitch well, but not have it attributed to luck?
Control has never been an issue with Porcello, though perhaps to a fault as being around the plate often leads to homer issues, like he endured in 2017. Porcello's strikeout percentage is up a tad, while his already low walk rate is down even further. The result is obviously positive, but alone not sufficient to account for 2018's success.
Fewer homers is what's driving Porcello's current performance. Behind this is a planned change in approach with the desired results. In the spring, Porcello indicated he wanted to throw more change-ups, and he's doing just that. He's also throwing even more first-pitch strikes, putting hitters in the hole, not knowing what to expect since Porcello can throw all of his other pitches for strikes. He has hitters off balance, struggling to make contact, let alone leave the yard.
Blake Snell, Tampa Bay Rays
Snell is coming off his only poor effort so far this campaign, but it wasn't enough to dissuade my reevaluating the original projection. I like what I see and anticipate it persisting.
By the numbers, there's some contradiction in Snell's performance to date. A .233 batting average on balls in play implies some good luck, whereas a 14 percent homer per fly ball mark is on the high side. His 4.03 FIP and 3.85 WHIP say his actual 3.02 ERA is fortunate. An 84.1 percent left on base mark agree with the expected ERAs. My contention is when all this fleshes out, Snell's baseline skills have improved enough to warrant an adjustment to the initial projection.
To further advance a running theme, Snell's growth has been in control, as evidenced by a career best 7.8 percent walk rate. His repertoire is mostly the same, with the effective tweak of throwing more curves and fewer change-ups. His velocity across the board is up a tick, helping a career best swinging strike mark.
Snell's ERA is due a correction as his BABIP grows. With improved basal skills, the landing should be softer than it may have been in previous seasons.
Chris Stratton, San Francisco Giants
Stratton is last on the list, meaning his adjustment was minor. This is relevant here since it's not like I now consider Stratton a huge fantasy asset. Early in the drafting season (which for me is in the Thanksgiving/Christmas/New Year's range), I targeted Stratton as a streaming option solely on the basis of AT&T Field, along with positive analysis from some industry pundits. Stratton picked up some helium late in spring training with a couple of dominant outings.
I'll draft a few hurlers for the same reason. Brian Mitchell comes to mind. Stratton is still on most of my rosters while Mitchell was jettisoned long ago. That is, Stratton has morphed from speculative pickup to someone I'm willing to deploy in favorable matchups.
Understandably, this endorsement rings hollow coming off a string of four starts where Stratton has allowed 18 runs in just 11 innings, featuring a shellacking by the Dodgers where they tagged Stratton for six earned in just 1.1 frames. Still, I saw enough earlier to trust Stratton for home efforts, with the hopes he develops into something a little better.
This may seem head-scratching since thus far, Stratton has been much better on the road. However, chances are this is a sample size anomaly. By and large, players are five percent better at home than away, and AT&T is one of the best venues at which to toe the rubber in the league.
Admittedly, this trust is more gut feel than numbers-driven, with the irony being I'm often criticized for being too numbers-driven, despite owning arguably the biggest gut in the industry. My spidey sense is Stratton's strikeout and walk rate both improve while he also induces more grounders. Maybe it's conformation bias based on having so many shares, but that's my story and I'm sticking to it.
Before signing off, Reynaldo Lopez, Sean Newcomb and Charlie Morton deserve an honorary mention as others I've adjusted for the better. It's just their stories aren't as interesting, helpful or self-deprecating as the others. As always, I'm happy to discuss this trio, or any other pitcher in the comments.
