MLB Barometer: Breaking Bryce

Trade season is here.

Nine of my 14 leagues allow trading, and my general pattern each year includes a flurry of activity in June.

After two months of games, the needs of each team become clear, and owners become more willing to take chances. Whether it's punting a category, consolidating talent by flipping two or three players for one, or looking to upgrade multiple active lineup spots by selling an elite bat or arm for a package of players in return, the conversations about potential deals are more fruitful this time of year.

In rotisserie formats, it's critically important to assess players based on their potential impact in the standings for each category.

In all formats, it's critically important to assess the quality of the replacement players you will be using in the lineup (from the reserve list, or the waiver wire) after completing a trade.

Things that might seem like a no-brainer at a glance may be less impactful, or more risky than you might think.

Take this offer I received from Yahoo's Scott Pianowski, for example:

@DerekVanRiper Your move, DVR. pic.twitter.com/FIpvyWf56y

— scott pianowski (@scott_pianowski) June 19, 2018

First off, this is the most bold trade offer I've ever received. I wish more people (including myself) were willing to plant the flag the way Pianow does in his deals.

In a vacuum, the snap reaction is to accept it as the side receiving Kris Bryant. No matter how high you are on Brandon Nimmo, straight up, the preference is still Bryant here on out.

As for the rest of the deal, the gap between Caleb Smith and Rick Porcello is wider than you might think. Aside from more stable skills, Porcello's team context is light years better right now in every facet, and it's not unreasonable to expect a difference of 6-8 wins between the two starters the rest of the way, in addition to the high probability that Porcello waxes Smith's ratios along the way. Goodrum is sneaky useful right now since his playing time his more secure following Miggy's injury, he's eligible at several positions, and he's getting regular turns in the middle-third of the Tigers' batting order.

In order to make the Bryant trade work for my team, I'm going to have to move offensive resources for a pitching upgrade or two. Otherwise, the extra offensive production has a chance to get washed away in the standings by the downgrade from Porcello to Smith.

As for Nimmo, he leads off this week's group of Risers...

Risers

Brandon Nimmo, OF, NYM -- Nimmo had a pair of homers in the Mets' series opener with the Rockies at Coors Field on Monday to lift his season total to 12 through 210 plate appearances. The former first-round pick showed a good eye at the plate last season (15.3% BB%, .379 OBP), and looked deserving of a larger role to begin the season. Unfortunately, his opportunity to play regularly was delayed until Yoenis Cespedes landed on the disabled list with a hip injury. In the time since Cespedes last played for the Mets (May 14), Nimmo has been one of the most valuable players in the pool, hitting .298/.387/.661 with 11 homers, six steals, 20 RBI and 25 runs during that span, while playing at a level that has erased concerns about his playing time going forward. The Mets can give Jay Bruce more time at first base later this season once he and Yoenis Cespedes are healthy, and they may opt to give Michael Conforto a brief trip to Triple-A to get his swing back on track.

Most in-season projections are going to be slow to adjust Nimmo's baseline, since he was very power-light in his 2016 debut, and last season's .418 slugging percentage with the Mets was in line with expectations founded on his lack of home-run output in the minors. The power he's offering in 2018 is supported by a sharp increase in flyballs, and he's paired the aforementioned discerning eye with an altered pull-heavy approach. In many ways, this surge in production is similar to what we are seeing from Max Muncy in Los Angeles, but one of the biggest differences between the two players is Nimmo's ability to contribute on the basepaths.

Already a top-50 hitter to this point despite the limited playing time early, Nimmo is laying the groundwork for a move into the ranks of the league's top 15-20 outfielders if big-league pitchers (and shifts) are unable to make major adjustments against him.

Joc Pederson, OF, LAD -- Pederson has been vaulting teams up in the standings in June, with a 15-game tear that includes a .389/.421/1.194 line (yes, he's slugged 1.194 in June), eight homers, 11 RBI and 12 runs this month. The fallout of Corey Seager's season-ending elbow injury put Chris Taylor in the infield, which has opened up outfield playing time for Pederson, mostly in center field. He's still sitting regularly against lefties, and the NL West has plenty of southpaws that will cause him to lose more playing time than he would in other divisions, but Pederson, along with Max Muncy and Matt Kemp have been among the pleasant surprises driving the Dodgers to the league's fourth-highest runs scored total (134) over the last 30 days. Pederson has always demonstrated patience as a big-league hitter, but he started to whittle away his strikeout rate last season (21.1% K% in 2017; 27.0%+ in 2014-2016), and he's managed to cut that previous career best even further to begin 2018 (13.8% K%; 188 plate appearances). Underneath that improvement is a three-year stretch with more consistent contact on pitches inside the strike zone, which helps raise his previously low batting average floor from the .230-range to .260+.

Aaron Hicks, OF, NYY -- It all comes down to health for Hicks. An intercostal injury shelved him early in 2018, and two bouts with oblique trouble landed him on the DL for prolonged stretches in 2017. The production when he's been on the field has been excellent, as he hit .262/.363/.476 with 25 homers, 16 steals, 85 runs and 84 RBI since the start of last season (589 plate appearances). As the Yankees' best defensive center fielder, his playing time is very secure, and his surge in production over the last two season is backed by an excellent approach (13.4% BB%, 18.5% K%). The production in June has been outstanding (.321/.377/.661, five homers), but there is a lot of skills growth that may be overshadowed by the aforementioned injuries.

Lance Lynn, SP, MIN -- A month ago, buying into Lynn as a waiver-wire pickup seemed foolish. Entering Wednesday's start, his season walk rate is still north of 5.0 BB/9, his ERA is close to 5.00, and his WHIP sits at a robust 1.60. Buying pitching is very difficult on the trade front. Lynn checks a few boxes, as he's managed to push his swinging-strike rate to a career-best 10.1% this season despite his early struggles. Further, he's a member of one of the two good teams in the American League Central, which gives him a favorable schedule with regular starts against the Tigers, Royals and White Sox. The horrendous April might have been the result of a late signing in free agency with the Twins, and the highly unusual early-season schedule that featured several postponements as a result of poor weather in the upper midwest. A setback against the Red Sox at home Wednesday might make it easier to acquire him ahead of a two-start week on the road with upcoming starts against the White Sox and Cubs. Since the start of May, Lynn has a 9.0 K/9, 3.6 BB/9, 0.40 HR/9, and a 3.20 ERA over his last eight starts.

Mark Melancon, RP, SF -- Hunter Strickland punched a door and broke his hand, which will put him on the shelf for the next six-to-eight weeks. The Giants have named Sam Dyson as their replacement in the ninth inning, which seems odd with Melancon inching his way back toward the closer role since his return from the disabled list. While the FAAB interest and first-come, first-serve pickups will likely focus on Dyson initially, Melancon is in Year 2 of a four-year, $62 million deal, and his recent history of arm injuries would seemingly limit him to one-inning appearances. With Melancon closing, Tony Watson and Will Smith would be the primary lefties available for matchup purposes in the late innings, while Dyson could be a groundball machine used to clean-up messes at any point between the sixth inning and the final out as needed. Beyond that, the Giants could slide far enough away from the Wild Card race in the next six weeks to part ways with Dyson (or other bullpen pieces) as contenders look for late-inning reinforcements, whereas their chances of dealing Melancon to unload salary are a pipe dream.

Fallers

Bryce Harper, OF, WAS -- At a glance, Harper's first half of 2018 is shaping up to resemble Manny Machado's first half from 2017. With a 8.7% barrel rate this season, Harper is still in the league's top-10 percent (tied for 24th), frequently hitting the ball very hard. In recent weeks, he's been striking out at an alarming rate, including a 36.5% K% in June while he's been mired in a slump (.143/.238/.214). Opposing teams are shifting against Harper more than ever, as he's seen a shift in 56.7% of his plate appearances this season, after teams shifted against him at a 21.6% clip in 2017. While teams have played him that way, Harper has been pulling the ball at a career-high rate, while getting a career-worst result on those balls in play (.280/.280/.573). Buying in now is a matter of assessing the small discount you might receive (if he's discounted at all) and your confidence in his ability to make the necessary adjustments to use the opposite field more frequently. Keep in mind, the absolute best version of Harper that we've seen in 2015 was equally pull happy (45 percent pull rate), but teams were defending him in a completely different way back then (four-year low 18.3% shift rate).

Miguel Sano, 3B, MIN -- The Twins sent Sano to High-A Fort Myers last week, not because he needs to re-learn how to hit pitching in the Florida State League, but because there are issues behind his on-field performance that need to be sorted out at the team's spring training facility. How does a former elite prospect with plus-plus raw power "earn" such a demotion?

Last Saturday, before the 4-hour rain delay for #mntwins-#Angels, Sano popped into the clubhouse hallway and squinted at LAA lineup from 10 feet away. "Lefty starter, huh?" he said upon his U-turn. This was 90 minutes before the scheduled first pitch. Next stop: Fort Myers.

— Mike Berardino (@MikeBerardino) June 14, 2018

It's highly unlikely that one isolated incident was the reason for Sano's removal from the short-term equation in Minnesota, but it's easy to see how his ongoing struggles with weight, and the lack of improvement with his strikeout rate throughout his time in Minnesota might be stunted development caused by a lack of effort. Dropping him in redraft mixers with fewer than 15 teams is appropriate. If the Twins opt to give him extra time in Florida, or if he returns in the coming weeks and continues to struggle, Eduardo Escobar can handle regular duty at third base once Jorge Polanco returns from his 80-game suspension during the first week of July.

Kyle Seager, 3B, SEA -- Seager is approaching Evan Longoria territory, where his reputation drives his mixed-league interest more than his present skills. The plate discipline has waned in 2018, as Seager has walked less than ever (4.9%) while striking out more than 20 percent of the time (21.4%) for the first time in his big-league career. He's still pacing toward 25 homers and 150 runs + RBI, but in his age-30 season, it's increasingly clear that 2016 (30 HR, .278/.359/.499, 99 RBI, 89 runs scored) will go down as the best season of his career. The most surprising thing about his sluggish June is that it's happened with the rest of the Mariners' offense firing on all cylinders.

Joey Gallo, OF, TEX -- Gallo is carrying a hard-hit rate above 50 percent for the second straight season, and there are still no complaints about his raw power and overall run production (18 homers, 42 RBI, 36 run). The problem with Gallo is that he's still not improving his strikeout rate, and his margin for error in maintaining regular playing time in the long run becomes slimmer if he's walking less, which has been the case so far in 2018 (down from 14.1% to 10.7%). Last season, Gallo had a .362 wOBA against the shift, despite facing the shift for 82.0% of his plate appearances. That mark has dropped to .297 in 2018, while the already heavy use of shifts against Gallo has ticked up to 88.1% this season. The approach leaves very little to fall back on when he's forced to go through an adjustment phase, and the career body of work as he nears 1,000 MLB plate appearances points to Chris Davis 2.0 (.199/.312/.482, 39.1% K%).

Kelvin Herrera, RP, WAS -- Herrera was exceeding expectations (at least, he was exceeding mine) as a profitable third-tier closer for the Royals prior to his recent trade to Washington. With Sean Doolittle pitching at an elite level again, there isn't a path to save chances for him in D.C. unless Doolittle lands on the disabled list, and even with that outcome, Ryan Madson is still in the mix for the Nats as an alternative. Thus far, Herrera has offset his reduced strikeout rate with an elite walk rate, but the lack of whiffs makes it very difficult to roster him outside of leagues that reward holds. The vacant closer's chair in Kansas City is interesting in that there isn't a clear-cut, next-in-line option, but the generally underwhelming skills of the potential replacements limits the interest in the array of speculative darts to low bids on the likes of Scott Alexander, Brandon Maurer, Tim Hill and Kevin McCarthy. Maurer was recently recalled from Triple-A Omaha, and he wasn't exactly dominant during his demotion, but his past experience finishing games may lead him to the first save chance the Royals manage to generate in the post-Herrera era.