Oak's Corner: Second-Half Targets

This article is part of our Oak's Corner series.

With so few games played since my column last week, I thought I would switch it up a bit and talk about a player at each position whom I am see having a strong second half of the season (yes, I know we are past the halfway point). Some of these are probably obvious, some are not so obvious, some are buy lows and some might have been dropped in your league depending on the size. I had multiple people ask me over the break for some names I like to shine after the All Star break, so I figured this would be a good time to detail them before the games really get ramped up again. I will call them the All-Star Break All Target Team!

• Catcher: Sal Perez – Perez spent the first three weeks of the season with an MCL tear in his knee and hasn't fully got it going this season. He does have 13 homers, but his .221 batting average has very much hurt fantasy owners who spent a seventh-round pick on him in 15-teamers in the offseason. Over the last three seasons, Perez has been extremely valuable in the catcher slot, hitting more than 20 homers in each season, with a career-high 27 in 2017 while hitting a combined .258 in that stretch. The first number that jumps off the page with Perez is his extremely low .235 BABIP, and while he isn't one to leg out any infield hits, it's way below his past three season, none of which were under .270.

  A look at his batted ball profile makes it easy to see why Perez got into this list as his hard hit rate is currently at 43.9 percent, the highest number of his career and more than 5 percent higher than last year, his previous career high. In addition, he's hitting more line drives than the last two seasons with a 20.4 percent rate. His strikeout rate is a bit up from 2017 at 20.4 percent, but not significantly, and it is still lower than his 21.8 percent mark in 2016. His walk rate is extremely low at 2.9 percent, but that's no surprise and what we've come to expect from Perez. With how hard he is hitting the ball, the batting average is going to come and the power is already there, as even with missing three weeks, his 13 homers still have him tied for fourth among all players with catcher eligibility. With his .221 at a tough position, I think Perez is a prime buy low, and I probably wouldn't need much of a discount of his draft day price to make a move for him.

• First Base: Jake Bauers – Bauers' callup to the Rays in early June was big news, but Bauers hasn't done much yet, at least from a fantasy perspective. His is hitting .252 with five homers and two steals through 36 games; not awful numbers for his first time through the bigs, but nothing that is forcing his way into fantasy lineups. I have even seen him get dropped in a few 12-team leagues, but the prime prospect status has caused him to be scooped up quickly where he was dropped. Despite the pedestrian fantasy numbers so far, I really like what I see from, both from watching his at bats and a scan of his numbers, especially at age 22.

  His walk numbers at his age are especially impressive, as he currently carries a 14.8 percent walk rate through 155 plate appearances. His hard hit rate is an extremely high 48 percent, which would put him in the top 10 in baseball if he had enough at bats to qualify, and his 24.5 percent line drive rate is also an excellent mark. His current fly ball rate of 34.7 percent is going to limit his homers, but I still think some are coming with the number of balls he is smoking as he grows into his power. In addition, he had 20 stolen bases last season in the minors and 10 already this year in the minors, so I think a sneaky five to seven steals down the stretch isn't a crazy notion. His strikeout rate is currently 21.3 percent, but he has shown lesser marks historically in the minors, and with a swinging strike rate under 10 percent so far, I'm not concerned about the punch outs impacting his average too much. Bauers is not the type to mash 20 second-half homers, but I like what I see his first time through the league and think he'll be a source of solid stats across the board, especially hitting third most days in the Rays lineup.

• Second Base: Starlin Castro – Castro is a player who will likely be on the trade block, as the Marlins are out of it and looking to cut even salary and add some prospects. If I was a team looking for a middle infielder for the pennant race, I'd look at Castro. His batting average has been a plus in fantasy leagues, but with only seven homers and 37 RBI, he hasn't stood out. Castro has made some clear improvements in his hitting profile so far this year, as his hard hit rate of 38.3 percent is substantially higher than his prior career-high of 31.4 percent in 2013 when he was with the Cubs. He has dropped his strikeout rate to 18.5 percent, but most impressively, after averaging about a 4.5 percent walks rate over the past two seasons, he currently sits at a career-high 7.1 percent.

  The homers are never going to be huge due to his lack of fly balls, but with his current hard hit rate, it's surprising that his HR/FB rate is so low at 7.4 percent after it was 16.2 percent and 15 percent in the last two seasons. Castro has been coming on nicely as of late, with a .339 average over his last 65 plate appearances. I'd guess he will hit a few more homers than we think down the stretch (and the counting stats will get a boost if he gets traded out of Miami), but more than anything, I think the batting average is real, and that category can be a tough one in which to gain, but I like trading for Castro in your league if you need some average in the final two months.

• Shortstop: Jurickson Profar – Finally healthy, Profar fell into regular playing time with the injuries to Rougned Odor, Elvis Andrus and Adrian Beltre, and has quietly been pretty good in that time. He does have a bit of a playing time squeeze right now with everyone back, and while he may sit a bit more than we want, his versatility has enabled the Rangers to find spots for him in the lineup most days. Also, with the Rangers out of the race, it's possible they make a trade, which opens up a spot for him, and further, just one injury will also do that trick.

  Through 85 games, Profar is only hitting .243, but he has contributed everywhere else in fantasy leagues with nine homers, eight steals, 50 runs and 46 RBI, pretty darn nice for a waiver wire pickup in April. What I really like with Profar is how much better he has been recently after initially struggling out of the gate with his newfound playing time. Since June 1, Profar is hitting .254 with six homers and a .792 OPS and, most impressively, his hard hit rate in that span is 44.1 percent, a huge bump up from his full season mark of 32.5 percent. To go along with his improved batted ball profile, Profar is also striking out less at only 13.1 percent, a large drop from his 19. percent rate in 2016, the last time he had any decent amount of playing time. I also think his .258 BABIP is going to rise down the stretch, especially as he's hitting the ball harder and his average should come with it. Now is the time to make a trade offer for Profar as with everyone healthy, his playing time is a bit murky right now and that .243 average brings down his value in owners' minds. Further, that triple eligibility of outfield, shortstop and third base really covers you in a bunch of spots, a valuable thing to have in a season in which it feels like someone gets hurt every evening.

• Third Base: Matt Chapman – I'm sure no one is shocked here, as I have written and tweeted about Chapman often, especially early in the season before he went on the DL with a hand injury. Chapman hasn't been bad on offense in his first full year in the majors, but the hand injury did bug him and he's currently hitting .250 with only 10 homers and 29 RBI. Some of that is missing some time while on the DL, but he has still played in 81 games and has 330 plate appearances. The injury apparently bugged Chapman since spring training, but hopefully the two-plus weeks off helped as there has been no indication that it is affecting him since his return in early July.

  The stat that makes me most positive about Chapman is how much he has lowered his strikeout rate as that was a clear concern coming into the season after a 28.2 percent strikeout rate in 2017. He has dropped the number to 23.6 percent so far this year while dropping his swinging strike rate two percent to 9.5 percent and upping his walk rate over 10 percent. Sometimes that drop in strikeouts comes with a change in approach that can lead to less hard contact (hi there 2017 Jonathan Lucroy), but that hasn't been the case as Chapman currently is in the top 25 in baseball with a 44.1 percent hard hit rate. He has suffered a drop in his fly ball rate to 37.1 percent, but he has also very nicely raised his line drive rate to 22.4 percent.

  Taking a deeper look at Chapman's numbers really makes me positive that he's going to improve upon his surface stats in the final 10 weeks of the season, and I'd love to snag him cheaply in a trade or off the waiver wire in a shallow league. I regrettably had to drop him when he went on the DL due to a roster crunch in one of my 12-teamers and was outbid on him when I tried to get him back. I think that's going to hurt the rest of the way as I like his chances to be a valuable asset down the stretch for the A's and fantasy owners. Also, if you have a few minutes to blow, watch some of his defensive clips online. Man, can this dude play the hot corner.

• Outfield: Bryce Harper – This one fits in the obvious category of course, but I haven't written much about Harper yet this season, so this felt like the right time to get after it. Bryce and I haven't gotten along well in years past as I seem to draft him in the NFBC Main Event when he gets hurt or struggles, and he looks like an MVP (hell, or actually wins it) in the years I don't have him. I hoped to break that trend this year when I snapped him up with the 13th pick this year in the Main Event, but I sure never thought a .214 average was something that remotely in play, even with my Bryce Curse!

  The batting average swings for Harper are wild, as in the last four years, he has hit over .315 twice and under .245 twice. He's striking out more at a 24.6 percent clip, but he's also second in baseball to Mike Trout in walk rate at 18.8 percent. Looking closer at the strikeouts, I will admit it's troubling that his swinging strike rate is 14 percent, the highest of his career. Another change from last year is that he is pulling the ball nine percent more of the time at 44.6 percent, the highest rate he has had since 2015, of course that is also the year he won the National League MVP.

  His career BABIP is .314, and so far this year it's amazingly only .226! I know the shift is affecting him, especially with how much he's pulling the ball, but he sits at a career high hard hit rate of 41.1 percent and I just have to think an insane hot streak is coming. The strikeouts do worry me, but when healthy, Harper is just too damn good to hit .214…right? He's probably a hard guy to trade for, as I doubt his owner wants to move him at .214 and risk missing the good stuff, but I would make a strong offer and see if you can get someone to bite who might finally be frustrated with him. He's going to have an absolutely monstrous six week run here at some point and I want to be on board when it comes.

• Starting Pitcher: Jameson Taillon – Taillon was a popular breakout candidate this spring, and while he hasn't been bad, his 3.91 ERA isn't exactly what his owners hoped for when they drafted him in March. I do, however, see a lot of positives and I would love to trade for him now before those positives show up in the second half. His biggest ERA issue has been the three big blowups that resulted in his ERA near the 4.00 level. After a fantastic start to the season where he allowed only two earned runs through his first three starts, Taillon had back to back starts in against the Phillies and Tigers where he allowed 12 earned runs in only 5.1 innings, which pushed his ERA to 4.91, and he has been fighting to recover ever since.

  Still hidden with the scars of that two-start stretch, Taillon has allowed three earned runs or fewer in 14 of his last 15 starts with a six earned run outing at the Reds as the only outlier. Taillon has pushed his strikeouts up a touch to 8.75 K/9 and nicely dropped his walks to only 2.55 BB/9, all while increasing his ground ball rate to 49.7 percent. He has maintained excellent velocity (95.3 mph) while adding a slider that has helped his swinging strike rate over 10 percent for the first time in his three-year career. Taillon is also an eyeball test guy for me, as I'm really impressed when I watch him pitch, but he does seem to just lose it for an inning at times and just needs to eliminate those lapses to take that final step. Those struggles in April really took some of the shine off the Taillon star, but he's really coming on and this may be your last chance to get him at a good price.

  I want to mention a few honorable-mention guys whom I'd like to acquire right now including Max Kepler and Michael Conforto in the outfield, Travis Shaw at third base and Nick Pivetta and Zack Wheeler on the mound. Conforto in particular is a big target for me while he is hitting under .220. His usual high hard rate has fallen this year, but hidden in his lower than usual 33.5 percent hard hit rate is that his rate is 40 percent since June 1, even though his results have been bad. He's a prime guy to acquire right now, as he's clearly hitting better even though the results on the surface have yet to show that, which presents a perfect situation on which to pounce.
  

Rockies at Diamondbacks – As the second half begins, the most crowded division is the National League West with four teams within four games of first place. The Dodgers finished the first half on a 37-17 run after a terrible start to the season, and the acquisition of Manny Machado makes them the clear favorite heading in the second half. The Diamondbacks and Rockies are both looking to hang with the Dodgers as long as possible, but are both also very much in the Wild Card race as well heading into this big series in Phoenix to kick off the second half.

The Rockies finished the first half on a high note winning their last five games and find themselves only two games behind the Dodgers. The Rockies have been carried by All Stars Nolan Arenado and Trevor Story, but quietly in the background has been the recent resurgence of Carlos Gonzalez. Since June 1, Cargo is hitting .305 with 32 runs and 22 RBI in 36 games while posting a .903 OPS. His lack of fly balls have hurt his homers with only six in that time frame, but if he can continue to hit and be that third middle of the order weapon for the Rockies, it really increases the potency of their offense.

The key to the Rockies staying in the race might be what they get in the second half from Jon Gray. Much has been written about his great metrics (11.33 K/9 and 2.72 BB/9) and the huge discrepancy between his ERA (5.44) and his FIP (3.03), but the Rockies need Gray to deliver on the field every fifth day. He was very effective last week against the Mariners in his first start back from the minors, a very good sign for the Rockies moving into the second half. If he can just find his form from 2017 where he posted a 3.67 ERA in 110.1 innings, he presents a very nice compliment to the quietly effective Kyle Freeland who has a 3.11 ERA so far this year in 115.2 innings.

The Diamondbacks have been a roller coaster of a team so far this year, jumping out of the gate quickly with a 20-8 record in March and April, as they built a six game lead in the NL West. The month of May was the total opposite, as they had a stretch where they lost 13 of 14 and were only one game over .500 when May ended, even after the red hot start. They have played better since June began but still find themselves a half game back of the Dodgers heading into the second half.

If the Diamondbacks are going to challenge the Dodgers the rest of the way, they need to find a third pitcher to step up behind Zack Greinke and Patrick Corbin. Both Zack Godley and Robbie Ray were great in 2017, but both have struggled so far this year and Ray had a long stint on the DL with an oblique injury. Ray's 5.03 ERA in 48.1 innings has been a big disappointment, especially after he broke out with 2.89 ERA in 2017 in 162 innings. His walk issues have been worse than usual this year at 5.04 walks per nine, and his usually high hard hit rate has spiked further out of control at 47.3 percent. He's still striking out a lot of batters (13.59 K/9), but the combination of that many walks plus the deluge of hard hit balls is hard to stomach. The D'Backs will need one of the two 2017 sensations to step up in the second half or the Dodgers may put them away before September begins.