The Z Files: First-Half Observations

Earlier in the week, when looking to kill a little time and engage some Twitter followers, I sent out the top 50 fantasy hitters to date in each league. It wasn't intended to be educational, mostly just to have a little fun. However, in the course of generating the numbers and seeing replies, a few things caught my attention.

Javier Baez is good

Yeah, I knew Baez was having a solid season, I just wasn't aware how well relative to the field he's been playing. It caught me off guard that Baez is the Senior Circuit's top fantasy batter so far. The crazy part is he's doing it while still being subject to Joe Maddon's whimsical managerial style, playing less than other top-tier hitters. While Baez has appeared in 92 of the Cubs 94 games to date (including Thursday night), with that extra game he's only 79th overall in terms of plate appearances.

Baez is pacing to set career highs across the boards, which may not appear to be saying much since this is just his third full season and, as suggested above, he hasn't been an everyday player. However, the 25-year-old has a chance of matching or besting his marks in homers, steals and RBI by the end of the month.

Of all the numbers, the one that caught my eye the most was his 72 RBI. He's been hitting cleanup lately, which helps, but leading the National League while lagging in plate appearances is usually an indication of an inflated batting average with runners in scoring position (BA w/RISP). The thing is, the opposite is true. League wide, the BA w/RISP is a couple of points higher than the overall average, likely due to pitchers working from the stretch as well as defensive alignments. Baez's .277 mark is well below his overall .291 level. In other words, Baez has been a bit unlucky with ducks on the pond; he should have driven in even more teammates.

The obvious question is, what to expect the rest of the way? In short, nothing Baez is doing skills-wise screams of luck, and thus impending regression. He's basically playing to the 90th percentile of all his skills simultaneously. Keep in mind even skills aren't static, and players perform within a range. It's just very rare for anyone to maintain performance at the apex across the board. Can he maintain this pace all season? Sure, especially if my chiding of Maddon is misplaced and the extra rest helps keep Baez fresh while not losing focus. That said, some measure of slowing down is likely.

Jose Peraza in the NL Top 10, really?

There's multiple directions this goes, beginning with just how well Peraza has played. Coming out of the break he's hitting .293 with five homers, 35 RBI, 17 steals and 53 runs. The homers and RBI aren't special, but relative to his contributions in the other categories, they're actually a little better than players of his ilk.

The bigger story here is how Peraza benefits from the current batting average and stolen base landscape. A top contributor always earns more in these two categories in AL or NL-only formats as compared to mixed, but this season the impact is even greater.

There's a lot of talk about the increase in power, though it's slowed a little this season. Piggybacking this is more strikeouts, which has resulted in plummeting batting averages, though to be fair, batting average on balls in play (BABIP) is also down. The result is a league-wide average of just .247 as compared to .255 the last two years and .254 in 2015. In case you're wondering, the drop can't be attributed to the cold weather in April, as the average that month was .244 while it was just a point higher in June. The effect in fantasy is that with the lower baseline, Peraza's .293 is the equivalent of .300 in previous campaigns.

Not only are steals continuing to wane, but the top performers are falling well short of the norm. At least to date, no one is pacing for 50 bags, with Starling Marte closest as he appears headed for 45-48. This would be just the second season since at least 2000 (I didn't go back any further) where nobody reaches 50 bags. In 2012, Mike Trout led the majors with 49. Usually, there's a handful of speedsters lapping the field, but this season, the top 10 is tightly bunched.

The stolen base category in roto leagues tends to bunch in the middle with widening gaps at either end. This year, it's flatter at the top end since the inventory is devoid of anyone blowing away the field. As such, there are more points in play for those looking to gain in the category since it's now possible to jump more teams, even towards the top of the standings. The caveat is the supply of steals is limited, which is what's causing this standings anomaly. If you have been waiting on someone like Adalberto Mondesi or Steven Duggar to finally emerge, your patience could be rewarded even more than in recent campaigns.

The Max Muncy love is out of control

Of all the players listed, I received more public and private complaints suggesting Muncy was ranked too low (35th in NL only). There are technical reasons for it, such as just two swipes and lower run and RBI totals relative to his 22 homers, but I found it odd that of all players, I was trolled the most on Muncy. After all, this is a guy almost no one knew heading into the season. In fact, if I were to have posted a poll in the spring asking if Muncy is:

1. A career minor leaguer toiling in the A's system sporting a .195 average with five homers in 96 MLB games

2. A two-time Ring of Honor heavyweight champion known for his DDT off the top rope finishing maneuver

the votes would have been split down the middle. Congrats to those fortuitously picking Muncy up and not dropping him. Trust me, you're not a lesser human being because your unicorn wearing a wreath of four-leaf clovers running towards a pot of gold at the end of a rainbow isn't ranked higher. It's not a subjective list. The numbers are the numbers. Sorry, perhaps not eating pizza and bagels for a month is getting to me.

Youth is served

This is more an overall observation than a reflection on the season's top producers, but thinking back on the first half, there's an impressive array of rookies who have become trusted by their teams, and earlier in the season than is normal. They're not all going to be in the Rookie of the Year conversation, but it speaks to a changing landscape where every top prospect may not wind up getting the Super-Two treatment. That's also due to an exceptional freshmen class, though. It began Opening Day when Scott Kingery broke camp with the Phillies. The most notable example is the confluence of events paving the way for Juan Soto to be called up by the Nationals, and how he's amazingly held his own as a teenager. The playoff-bound Yankees turned to Gleyber Torres and Miguel Andujar, who have both responded. Ronald Acuna has been a major factor in the Braves' success. The Rays advanced Jake Bauers and Wily Adames, though the latter struggled and was sent back down. Pitchers are well represented with Shane Bieber, Joey Lucchesi, Freddy Peralta, Jaime Barria, Nick Kingham, Walker Buehler, Mike Soroka, and Jonathan Loaisiga among others contributing in varying degrees. Not only is this great for baseball and introduces a new wrinkle to how we draft reserves and manage FAAB from a fantasy sense, it bodes well for my cellar-dwelling Strat-O-Matic club which is two first round rookie picks away from making a run at last to first next season. Hey, if I'm avoiding delicious, starch-based edibles, I'm allowed a #humblebrag.