In-Season Strategy: Five Bold, Post-All-Star Predictions

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Updated on February 19, 2018 6:23PM EST

Will this year's NBA Finals feature the usual suspects? Will it be business as usual in the 2018 MVP race? It's easy to take the path of least resistance and follow conventional wisdom with predictions like a Cavs/Warriors rematch, but why not take some risks?

Here are five bold predictions as we head into post All-Star break action:

1. The Nuggets are poised to make some noise

After taking care of the Bucks before the All-Star break, the Nuggets sit at 32-26, tied with Portland for sixth place in the West. They're 7-3 over their last ten contests, including wins over San Antonio, Golden State and Oklahoma City.

Let's assume the Nuggets stay right where they are and draw the Spurs in Round 1. Denver is 1-2 against San Antonio thus far, but in the first two games the Nuggets were battling injuries at multiple positions. The two teams will meet for the final time in their first contests after the break in what could be a bellwether moment for Denver as it looks to hold onto its pre-break momentum.

Denver's convincing, 117-109 win against the Spurs at home before the break is a strong indication that an injury-free Nuggets team -- one that will get Paul Millsap back in the next few weeks -- has the ability to take its game to the next level. A major hurdle in Denver's quest for a title is Houston, as the Rockets have beaten the Nuggets (and just about every other team)

Here are five bold predictions as we head into post All-Star break action:

1. The Nuggets are poised to make some noise

Ideally, Denver will either avoid the Rockets as long as possible or find a way to try to match James Harden and Chris Paul's blistering offensive attack. Jamal Murray and Gary Harris are no Harden and Paul, but the Nuggets will come out of the break with the league's sixth-best offense (111.0 ORtg).

Of course, given how the West is shaping up, avoiding Houston would likely mean a second-round date with Golden State, which may be an equally unappealing fate, although the two teams have already split their four regular season meetings.

2. Anthony Davis will challenge for the MVP award

Giannis Antetokounmpo was the early, odds-on favorite to win the MVP, but the Bucks have had their share of struggles, relatively speaking, and The Greek Freak has been consistently great, but not quite as spectacular as he was for the first few weeks of the season. Russell Westbrook and James Harden have put up monster stat lines, but they are performing with markedly different supporting casts, and sharing the spotlight with other A-listers may end up hurting their respective cases. That's especially true for Westbrook, who single-handled dragged the Thunder to 47 wins in 2016-17 en route to his first MVP award. After bringing in Carmelo Anthony and Paul George, OKC is on pace for fewer wins this time around.

As of Monday, Harden is the Vegas favorite, but the race is far from over. LeBron James has the second-best odds, but even his MVP aspirations seem a bit clouded, as he's endured his share of controversy in the wake of a turbulent trade deadline. James' production is as strong as ever, but the Cavs have been a disappointment overall and are barely on pace to win 50 games.

All of this is to say that if the Pelicans can manage to squeak into the playoffs, they will undoubtedly have done so on the shoulders of Davis. When you consider the definition of the term valuable, a number of top-tier players enter the conversation for several reasons, but the Pelicans would be in the basement without Cousins' and Davis' contributions this season. New Orleans is only 4-5 in the nine games since Cousins went down, but in that span Davis is averaging 31.3 points, 12.2 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 2.2 steals and 2.1 blocks while shooting nearly 43 percent from three.

If the Rockets keep winning at anything close to their current rate, Harden probably takes home the award, but if Davis can maintain that level of production over the final 25 games -- and, perhaps more importantly, get the Pelicans to the postseason -- he'll rightfully force his way into the discussion.

3. Donovan Mitchell will cement himself as the Rookie of the Year favorite

The idea of someone other than Ben Simmons winning this award was borderline-laughable earlier this season, but Simmons has hit somewhat of a rookie (well, technically sophomore) wall, though he seems to have bounced back after a rough January. While Simmons leads all rookies in rebounds and steals per game, Mitchell's sits atop the league in scoring average among rookies. Over the past 20 games, Mitchell is besting Simmons in scoring by more than five points per game, and he hasn't missed a beat while serving as the catalyst of an 11-game winning streak heading into the All-Star break.

Narrative wise, both players stack up well. Simmons immediate impact has essentially negated the absence of Markelle Fultz, though he does share the limelight with a strong supporting cast, headlined by Joel Embiid, an All-Star starter.

Mitchell's supporting cast is fine, but the ease with which he's become the offensive linchpin for a Jazz team most expected to take a step back after losing its franchise player in free agency is a remarkable achievement for any first-year player. Given his frame, athleticism and otherworldly vision, Simmons' long-term ceiling may still be higher (though that's very much up for debate), Mitchell's 2018 resume is becoming more impressive by the day, and a dynamic final two months will only increase his odds to claim the Rookie of the Year award by season's end.

4. The Warriors won't make the NBA Finals

This prediction is akin to blasphemy in the media. How can the 14-loss Warriors find themselves on the outside looking in? For starters, the Rockets have outplayed the Warriors in both of their matchups this season, and if they finish in the top two in the West, as expected, this matchup may be inevitable. The Warriors could come off the rails even earlier than that, however. Regular season meetings only mean so much, but if the Nuggets end the season as the seventh seed, Golden State will have to curb the self-coaching and lean on Steve Kerr to outmaneuver Mike Malone. Denver and Houston aside, the new-look Pelicans and Clippers can't match up in terms of talent but still present some matchup issues. And If the Blazers can work out some kinks and get better wing play, they, too, could emerge as a potential roadblock in the Warriors' path to the Finals. Admittedly, these are all unlikely scenarios, but the West is better positioned to push Golden State, especially in Rounds 2 and 3, than it has been in recent years.

5. The Raptors go... all the way?

Can the Raptors get past the Cavaliers this year? If they can stay healthy, it's entirely possible. Both Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan have taken their games to a new level and are unquestionably one of the league's premier backcourt duos. Toronto's only glaring weakness is playmaking on the wing, especially when DeRozan is off the floor. As good as OG Anunoby has been as a rookie, he's far from the answer. The Raptors have plenty of options off the bench, but in order to avoid yet another May collapse, they'll need more consistent play out of C.J. Miles, Pascal Siakam and especially Norman Powell, who's been on the verge of falling out of the rotation at times this season.