Best Ball Strategy: Ten Targets

For this article I'll try to identify the players serving as my staple best ball picks with the regular season approaching. Some patterns are setting in reliably, and my favorite targets are emerging with increasing clarity. I'll list them by descending ADP price. The ADP cited for MFL10s goes back to August 1, while for DRAFT the date range is not clear.

This list won't contain blue chip picks like Todd Gurley, Ezekiel Elliott, etc. – I consider those guys a more or less infallible asset, so I'll be looking at players in Round 2 and beyond.

Alex Collins, RB, BAL (40.35 MFL, 31.6 DRAFT)

Collins is one of my (exceedingly rare!) prospect misses, and I'm embarrassed to admit the error of fixating on his non-indicative combine testing which, while legitimately terrible (4.59 40, 28.5-inch vertical, 113-inch broad jump), seem in hindsight like a pretty clear case of just not training properly. Collins was a blue chip recruit for Arkansas who generally played at a high level in college football's toughest conference, and despite getting cut by Seattle last year, the success he enjoyed in Baltimore was exactly the sort of production you would have predicted for Collins after his freshman year at Arkansas.

So while I understand why someone might be leery of Collins' ability to hold off competition, or otherwise consider him a flash in the pan, I personally am sold at this point. Again, what Collins did last year is exactly what you would have expected of him circa 2014. Collins finished his Arkansas career with 3,703 yards (5.6 YPC) and 36 touchdowns in 38 games despite splitting carries with Jonathan Williams. I was comparing him to Marion Barber before that disastrous combine scared me off.

Collins' usage in the second half of last year hints at a workload comparable to the first-round picks at RB, notably including an escalated pass-catching role as the season went on. He saw 31 targets in the final seven weeks, and while he'll probably never be a plus pass catcher, the fact that Collins secured 34 of 47 targets for 271 yards (72.3 percent catch rate, 5.8 YPT) in his NFL career is vaguely encouraging. Four fumbles on 235 touches is the only source of worry I have at this point.

Derrick Henry, RB, TEN (36.6 MFL, 35.1 DRAFT)

I'm a predictable drone when it comes to Henry, and I'll remain such no matter how many times people cite short-sample efficiency metrics that Dion Lewis accumulated playing in a New England offense that's discarded more runners in the last five years than any of us can remember.

I like Lewis, but if healthy Henry is just a totally different breed. The side-by-side pictures of the two may be a hokey trope at this point, but there's real significance to the fact that Henry is the faster of the two players even at his improbably contrasted build.

Henry has his limitations – you can't stand around 6-foot-3, 250 pounds and still cut on a dime – but his strengths are profound, and I'm taking the leap of faith that Matt LaFleur will emphasize those strengths. The presence of Lewis definitely caps Henry's usage and leaves him vulnerable to a diminished workload when the Titans are playing catch up, but in an uptempo and non-Mularkey system I love Henry's chances of finishing with both the highest rushing average and the highest touchdown carry percentage among qualifying runners this year. This logic features a razor-slim margin for error given its volume of conditions, but I can't resist it.

Jarvis Landry, WR, CLE (44.43 MFL, 53.0 DRAFT)

I liked Landry more than Josh Gordon this year even before Gordon's off-field challenges flared up again just prior to training camp, so with Gordon and even Corey Coleman replacement Antonio Callaway on uncertain footing, I absolutely love Landry now. He's one of my top receiver projections, even in standard scoring.

Landry was not efficient in Miami, but I've grown to appreciate his prolific usage there despite it being a boneyard of an organization. The Dolphins are a rotten team from top to bottom, and the change of scenery could be a legitimate boon for Landry by default. But it's not just any scene – he gets to play under Todd Haley, one of the objectively best offensive coordinators for extracting wide receiver production. If Haley can get 1,000 yards out of Steve Breaston, I'm betting on 1,300 from Landry.

Cooper Kupp, WR, LAR (78.4 MFL, 90.2 DRAFT)

Some people think I'm petty but this blurb proves that I am in fact a tremendously gracious person. I was a Kupp skeptic last year – I still don't think there's a huge difference between him and Trent Taylor as prospects – and yet I'm humble enough to admit that he looks like a strong fantasy value anyway. Incredible!

Even if I think Kupp may have the highest ratio of fantasy value to real life dispensability, his role in the Rams offense and his perfect fit in that role dictate a high fantasy upside, especially for the price. For various structural reasons the slot is the foundation of modern NFL passing games, and Sean McVay unsurprisingly is on the cutting edge of that trend with the slot receiver the second-most active skill position player behind Todd Gurley. This structurally-dictated benefit to Kupp is compounded in at least two additional ways: (1) his own ideal skill set for the function and (2) Jared Goff's natural inclination to lean on that part of the passing game.

It puzzles me that Robert Woods often (usually?) gets drafted ahead of Kupp. Woods and Brandin Cooks are both better big-play threats than Kupp, but neither profiles for red-zone targets with Cooks at 183 pounds and Woods at 6-feet, 195 pounds, and neither will see targets as consistently as Kupp will. At 6-foot-2, 208 pounds, Kupp also projects as the primary red-zone target for Goff. Ten of Sammy Watkins' 70 targets last year were in the red zone, and it's unlikely Cooks or Woods will earn red-zone targets at a comparable rate. To be clear, I have a higher fantasy point projection on Cooks than Kupp, but not proportionate to the extent that their ADPs diverge.

Nick Chubb, RB, CLE (88.09 MFL, 114.7 DRAFT)

I have no idea how there is a roughly 30-pick gulf between Chubb's ADP in MFL10s and DRAFT.com, but the fact that his market is so much colder on the latter site means that is primarily where this entry applies, though I'll still watch vigilantly for Chubb to slide in MFL10 drafts as well. It looks like a 49th overall outlier selection might be propelling his greater price over there.

In an earlier article I wrote about an experiment where I, having owned no Chubb shares to that point, resolved to select him at his ADP of the time, and I concluded in that article that I would begrudgingly need to abstain from selecting Chubb due to the price proving problematic. His stock has slid since then, though – perhaps due to his meaningless but still poor stats from Cleveland's first preseason game? I don't know – and his new price strikes me as just right, especially on DRAFT.

Chubb remains a high-risk pick, but if he's closer to the 10th round than the seventh then I think it's a risk justified, and one more easily withstood since you can comfortably get him as an RB4 at this point. Chubb is one of the 10 most talented running backs in the league to me, so his upside is unique in the range of the draft he tends to go.

John Brown, WR, BAL (191.49 MFL, 183.4 DRAFT)

I have no idea what to make of Brown's health. I don't think there's much we can know or otherwise take for granted with Brown, especially after Arizona all but discarded him despite his once promising career with the team. But at the moment he apparently looks good.

If Brown looks healthy, then he's one of the most talented receivers in the league, point blank. Not only that, but he would in that scenario play for one of the league's most pass-happy offenses. Michael Crabtree gets all the hype in Baltimore, but Brown is the better player if he's the same guy he was in 2015. Maybe his body will break down again like it did in Arizona, but I can't pass on this upside at this price.

Mitchell Trubisky, QB, CHI (164.19 MFL, 165.8 DRAFT)

Trubisky has probably been my most-drafted player since the spring, and nothing's changing even with the Bears getting some hype since then. Dual-threat quarterback in what might be the most uptempo offense in the league. This is one of those categorical buys for me – I don't even bother myself with the question of how good Trubisky actually is. But I think he's probably pretty good, too.

Case Keenum, QB, DEN (173.59 MFL, 162.2 DRAFT)

Trubisky is my staple QB2, and Keenum is my main QB3. Keenum is usually dirt cheap but I feel like he's a great dark horse to finish in the top 12 at quarterback with Demaryius Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders, and Courtland Sutton to throw to. Keenum has no arm but he has good downfield accuracy, and with receivers like this he should have some real separation to work with, minimizing the need for him to hit small windows.

Taywan Taylor, WR, TEN (221.42 MFL, 204.6 DRAFT)

Post-hype candidate Tajae Sharpe is still in the picture and figures to be plenty involved for however long Rishard Matthews is on the shelf, but Taylor is the better player and appears to be safely ahead of Sharpe in the rotation despite one less year of NFL experience.

Taylor (5-foot-11, 203 pounds) reminds me of Stefon Diggs – a guy with a slot receiver build but the ball skills and after-the-catch ability to regularly make plays on the outside, too. I expect the Titans to be among the most uptempo and generally successful offenses this year with Matt LaFleur replacing Mike Mularkey, and LaFleur's presence bodes additionally well for Taylor given the usage fellow slot target Cooper Kupp saw under LaFleur.

Luke Willson, TE, DET (223.66 MFL, 207.2 DRAFT)

Like Trubisky, I earnestly believe that my draft habits alone may have substantially altered the ADP here. I basically find it impossible to not include Willson in almost any best ball roster I'm drafting. I can't tell whether I'm legitimately high on him or if he just strikes me as obviously superior to the alternatives – people will literally select backup tight ends (Tyler Kroft, Vernon Davis) and free agent tight ends (Antonio Gates) before they'll consider Willson, and it puzzles me.

By basically all accounts, Willson is headed for the starting tight end role in Detroit. This is a team that sent 119 targets to its tight ends last year, and that figure should only rise with Matt Patricia's arrival. I would expect the Lions offense to look mostly like the previous Jim Bob Cooter products, but with at least a few Belichickian principles added to it. There probably isn't a coach in the league's history who's shown a more consistent interest in utilizing tight ends than Belichick.

Meanwhile, Willson has rare athleticism for a tight end that hints at real fantasy upside, especially for his cheap price. At 6-foot-5, 251 pounds Willson ran the 40-yard dash in 4.51 seconds prior to his draft. The graph below shows his athletic metrics relative to wide receivers, so he's an easily elite athlete by tight end standards.