Football Draft Kit: 2017 Sleepers & Busts

Fantasy owners love to debate sleepers and busts. But the terms "sleeper" and "bust" do not accurately reflect the actual topic of the debate, nor do they accurately reflect the purpose of this article. So, let's be accurate and term it what it is – "undervalued" and "overvalued." The goal of this article is not to predict unknown players who will be great this year, nor is it to predict name–brand players who will be terrible. It is simply to identify players whose likely average draft position (ADP) makes them either undervalued or overvalued.

Like everything else in life, fantasy drafts are about opportunity cost – the potential gain given up by not drafting Player A to instead draft Player B. To determine that, owners must consider the costs and benefits of each player relative to his ADP. This article will help owners make those decisions. But remember, calling Mike Evans overvalued, or a bust, does not mean he will be awful this year. It simply means his risk outweighs the likelihood that he will return his ADP value.

We polled our NFL writers for their favorite undervalued and overvalued players entering the 2017 season. For our purposes, we limited "busts" to an ADP top–10 QB/TE or top–20 RB/WR who is likely to be overpriced.

UNDERVALUED

QUARTERBACK

Eli Manning, Giants

Manning ranked seventh in quarterback scoring in 2014 and 2015 before taking a step back last year, but he still passed for more than 4,000 yards. A drop in touchdowns was the major reason for his fall, but he has a great opportunity to bounce back this year thanks to the addition of Brandon Marshall, who has been one of the league's most active red–zone wideouts the last few seasons (he even helped Ryan Fitzpatrick reach 31 TDs). Marshall, Odell Beckham Jr. and Sterling Shepard make up one of the best wideout groups in the NFL, giving Manning legitimate top–five upside.
– Andrew Laird

Carson Wentz, Eagles

Last year, he was starved for targets. This year, he's spoiled. Philadelphia signed Alshon Jeffery and deep–threat Torrey Smith to join wideout Jordan Matthews, tight end Zach Ertz and running back Darren Sproles in the passing game. More options will make life tougher on defenses, which should help Wentz's completion percentage (62.4 percent, 18th) and help him stretch the field (6.2 YPA, 29th). Wentz looked like he belonged despite the typical rookie drawbacks. His new toys should help make him this year's top breakout slinger from the middle to late rounds.
– Tim Heaney

RUNNING BACK

Ameer Abdullah, Lions

One of the biggest winners of the offseason, Abdullah recovered from last year's season–ending foot injury by March, and then watched his team pass on running backs throughout free agency and the draft. Lions GM Bob Quinn named Abdullah the starter shortly after the draft, confirming what was becoming apparent by the day. Detroit also signed two of the top offensive linemen on the free–agent market, perhaps paving the way for the return of a long–dormant rushing attack. Theo Riddick still will be heavily involved, but Abdullah is also a capable receiver.
– Jerry Donabedian

Samaje Perine, Redskins

Kirk Cousins has thrown for 9,083 yards the last two years combined, and the Redskins are still loaded with receiving weapons. With the prevalence of nickel and dime formations to combat such prolific passing attacks, a back–breaking, sledgehammer of a runner like Perine is going to eat in an offense that can sling it like Washington. With good vision, exceptional contact, balance and a nasty demeanor, Oklahoma's all–time leading rusher runs like Maurice Jones–Drew in Jonathan Stewart's body. Robert Kelley and the NFC East are officially on notice.
– Luke Hoover

Isaiah Crowell, Browns

Before the Browns' line was ravaged by injuries in 2016, Crowell averaged 6.5 yards per carry and scored three touchdowns in the first four games. Then after a rough patch, he rushed for 6.6 yards per carry in the last four games, finishing the season with 1,271 total yards and seven scores. The team addressed the offensive line by adding a pair of solid interior blockers, and standout guard Joel Bitonio is healthy after a season–ending injury. Crowell could be in line for a breakout season as the lead runner in coach Hue Jackson's power running scheme.
– Jim Coventry

Derrick Henry, Titans

Henry was a popular upside pick last season, and even though he didn't become a fantasy factor, he might have more upside this season. Concerns about DeMarco Murray's age (29) and mileage (1,420 carries) should only increase after he managed a rare accomplishment – staying healthy for 16 games, the second time he did so in six seasons. Henry is the unrivaled No. 2 running back in an offense willing to use a bell–cow runner. He may produce less than running backs with similar ADPs for several weeks, but the upside is as high as anyone outside the first couple rounds.
– Alex Rikleen

WIDE RECEIVER

John Brown, Cardinals

Brown's 2016 was ruined by fatigue that seems to have abated when doctors removed a cyst from his spine this offseason. He went through all his usual offseason prep and should start opposite Larry Fitzgerald, who turns 34 in August. Michael Floyd is gone, and Brown, who has been compared to T.Y. Hilton and Marvin Harrison, should be the team's primary playmaker. Last time Brown was healthy he averaged 15.4 yards per catch and 9.9 yards per target, with six catches of 40–plus yards on 101 targets. If Brown's workload hits 125 targets, we could be looking at a top–15 receiver.
– Chris Liss

DeVante Parker, Dolphins

We've seen glimpses of brilliance from Parker, the 14th overall pick in 2015, but nagging injuries and the emergence of Kenny Stills prevented him from a major breakout. That could change this year, as Parker showed up to offseason workouts more fit and dedicated than before, so much so that offensive coordinator Clyde Christensen predicted a "gigantic year" from him. While positive "coach–speak" should often be ignored, it is worth noting the team laid into Parker last summer when he was slowed by a hamstring injury, implying the ailment was due to a lack of conditioning.
– Chris Liss

Stefon Diggs, Vikings

The Vikings opted not to address their receiving corps this offseason, apparently content to move ahead with Diggs, Adam Thielen, 2016 first–round selection Laquon Treadwell and tight end Kyle Rudolph. As the clear top dog among that bunch, Diggs will have every opportunity to build upon a 2016 sophomore campaign in which he caught 84 of 112 targets in only 13 games. His skill set suggests last year's 10.8 yards per reception was a fluke, while Minnesota's roster suggests his 8.6 targets per game is sustainable. Diggs could flirt with WR1 status.
– Jerry Donabedian

J.J. Nelson, Cardinals

Nelson started breaking out toward the end of last season, scoring a touchdown in four of the last five games and reaching double–digit targets in two of the last three. Larry Fitzgerald, who will be 34 come Week 1, returns for another season, and while John Brown is expected to start on the other side, Nelson has shown high upside thanks to his excellent speed. The Cardinals' offense obviously revolves around running back David Johnson, but Nelson could be its top wide receiver by season's end even if he is not the most consistent producer week to week.
– Andrew Laird

Cameron Meredith, Bears

Despite snagging passes from Jay Cutler, Brian Hoyer and Matt Barkley in the last 12 games of 2016, Meredith totaled 836 yards, averaging 9.2 YPT. A former college QB, Meredith has become a savvy receiver with a 6–foot–3, 207–pound frame, fluid athleticism, 4.4–speed, soft hands and excellent body control. In four games with double–digit targets he provided a glimpse of his ceiling by catching at least nine passes for more than 100 yards in each. Chicago's No. 1 wideout with Alshon Jeffery gone, Meredith will see his volume spike in what should be his true coming out party.
– Luke Hoover

Demaryius Thomas, Broncos

Thomas was a victim of poor quarterback play and a hip injury in 2016 that resulted in his worst fantasy output since 2011 (though he still caught 90 passes for 1,083 yards and five scores). While quarterback is still an issue, Thomas welcomes back offensive coordinator Mike McCoy, the Denver playcaller in Thomas' breakout year in 2012. And new head coach Vance Joseph talked this offseason about about getting the ball into the hands of the team's most explosive player and of Thomas "taking over games." With an ADP in the 15–20 range among WR, Thomas has top–five upside.
– Jim Coventry

Josh Doctson, Redskins

Doctson's rookie season ended last year after two games with an Achilles' tendon injury. He is healthy again and reportedly looked quick in offseason workouts. The Redskins lost their top two receivers this offseason in DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon, which should make Doctson the starter opposite free–agent addition Terrelle Pryor while Jamison Crowder plays the slot. Doctson is extremely athletic and at 6–2 could be used in the red zone (three red–zone targets in two games last year), though the 6–4 Pryor and tight end Jordan Reed will be used there, as well.
– Alex Rikleen

TIGHT END

Julius Thomas, Dolphins

Sure, it's a crowded receiving picture, and he's coming off an injury–marred 2016, but Thomas reunites with Adam Gase, the former Broncos offensive coordinator who's now the head coach in Miami. In 2013–14 in Denver, Thomas averaged 54 receptions and 638.5 yards while scoring 12 touchdowns both seasons. Quarterback Ryan Tannehill will enjoy his new target in what should be the most effective system he has directed. And Thomas should be used more frequently in the red zone than he was with Jacksonville the last two seasons when he totaled 16 red–zone targets in 21 games.
– Tim Heaney


OVERVALUED

QUARTERBACK

Matt Ryan, QB, Falcons

Coming off a season in which everything fell in his favor, Ryan figures to be one of the top five or six players selected at a position that's incredibly deep. He's typically been a low–end fantasy starter more so than a standout, but prospective owners might still have to pay an inflated price after last season's MVP showing. While he should be just fine from a non–fantasy perspective, Ryan isn't as safe a bet as Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers or Drew Brees to finish the season as a high–end fantasy QB. A handful of players with similar ceilings will be drafted after Ryan.
— Jerry Donabedian

Cam Newton, Panthers

Most will probably write off Newton's disappointing 2016 campaign as simply a down year after he threw 35 touchdown passes in 2015. However, his huge 2015 season looks like the anomaly, while last year is closer to his career numbers. For instance, his 19 passing scores last year nearly match his 2011–2014 average of 20.5. Also, his drop in rushing attempts last year to a career–low 90 is probably the new normal. After dealing with nagging injuries the last few years, Newton could run less as the Panthers seek to keep him healthy. He has more risk than other QBs in his range.
– Jim Coventry

Dak Prescott, Cowboys

Prescott will be drafted as a top–10 quarterback by those who think they can wait on him and get last year's results again. Unfortunately, he is going to throw more than four interceptions this season – that's a bit too accurate even if he is an effective decision maker. Also, Dallas remains a run–first team. Don't expect too many more than the 459 attempts (23rd) he had last season. And it's hard to see him approaching 30 touchdowns through the air. The Cowboys' receivers behind Dez Bryant and Jason Witten remain erratic, even after Cole Beasley's mini–breakout.
– Tim Heaney

RUNNING BACK

Adrian Peterson, Saints

Peterson's move to New Orleans surprised many because of the Saints' pass–heavy offense, and it seems likely that the former Viking won't come close to matching any of his full seasons in Minnesota. Even if the Saints run more, Mark Ingram will surely get his share of touches, and it's unlikely Peterson will get many opportunities on passing downs given Ingram's ability in that area, in addition to Travaris Cadet and rookie third–round pick Alvin Kamara. Fantasy owners expecting a high percentage of the Peterson of old, only now in a high–octane offense, will be sorely disappointed.
– Andrew Laird

DeMarco Murray, Titans

Murray touched the ball 223 more times than Heisman Trophy winner Derrick Henry last year, piling up nearly 1,700 total yards and 12 touchdowns. But he found the end zone just once on the ground in the final six games as the 247–pound Henry chipped into his goal–line work with four scores over that stretch. As Murray enters his age–29 season, and the Titans lean more heavily on quarterback Marcus Mariota's arm now that they have upgraded his receiving weapons, look for that backfield distribution to continue shifting to the young bull.
– Luke Hoover

Jay Ajayi, Dolphins

Ajayi broke out with 1,272 rushing yards and eight touchdowns last year in essentially 10 games, as he did not become the starter until Week 6. But 624 of those yards came in three games, and in his last nine games, including the playoffs, he failed to top 80 yards eight times. In his last five games, he had 2.7 yards per carry or less three times. Sure, the three 200–yard games he posted (two of which came against the Bills) were great those weeks, but if consistency is important, Ajayi might not be worth the steep price it will cost to draft him.
– Jim Coventry

C.J. Anderson, Broncos

It has been three years since Anderson's incredible eight–game stretch to close the 2014 season. In 2015, he played 15 games and only exceeded six fantasy points three times (standard scoring). Last year, he had four good games before a Week 7 knee injury cost him the rest of the season. But he was losing carries to Devontae Booker before he was injured, and now he also has to battle Jamaal Charles, who signed as a free agent. New coach Vance Joseph said the plan is for a running back committee, and Anderson is not even guaranteed the first role in that committee.
– Alex Rikleen

WIDE RECEIVER

Mike Evans, WR, Buccaneers

Evans had a big fantasy year in 2016, but it was supported more by volume (173 targets, 1st) than skill (7.6 YPT, 28th among the NFL's 41 100–target WR). Evans' volume will almost certainly decline this year with free–agent addition DeSean Jackson and rookies O.J. Howard and Chris Godwin in the fold. Evans is a good receiver, and his size makes him a good bet for double–digit touchdowns, but he's not at the A.J. Green/Julio Jones/Odell Beckham Jr. level in real life, and he's priced as though he is. Don't expect him to earn his cost unless he leads the league in targets again.
– Chris Liss

Alshon Jeffery, WR, Eagles

There's little doubt about Jeffery's skills, but Philadelphia isn't a great fit. For one, there are plenty of mouths to feed in the offense from incumbents Jordan Matthews and Zach Ertz, who presumably have a rapport with quarterback Carson Wentz already, and fellow new arrival Torrey Smith, as well as pass–catching back Darren Sproles. Second, it's unclear if Wentz is any good. Third, Jeffery's been injury prone since he came into the league, and fourth, free–agent WRs often struggle during their first seasons in a new system. This is simply too much risk at his likely ADP.
– Chris Liss

Keenan Allen, Chargers

Looking to bounce back from last year's ACL tear, Allen is a volume–dependent possession receiver in an offense that suddenly has a ton of receiving options. In addition to running back Melvin Gordon and tight ends Hunter Henry and Antonio Gates, the Chargers will have to feed wideouts Tyrell Williams, Travis Benjamin and Mike Williams. Allen should be ready for Week 1 and likely will still be Philip Rivers' favorite target, but he's only produced 11.8 yards per catch for his career, and his 2014–15 target volume (9.6 per game) likely is a thing of the past.
— Jerry Donabedian

Michael Thomas

The addition of Adrian Peterson could move the Saints into a more even run–pass distribution, which hurts Thomas' fantasy upside. Brandin Cooks' trade to New England theoretically frees additional targets for Thomas, but there is nothing to say the Saints will not run the ball more instead. Additionally, Willie Snead, who had just 17 fewer targets than Thomas last season, is still a viable option for quarterback Drew Brees, as is free–agent acquisition Ted Ginn. Thomas shouldn't have a bad year, but a move to the top tier of wide receivers is far from guaranteed.
– Andrew Laird

Amari Cooper, Raiders

Cooper has produced at least 70 catches and 1,000 yards in both of his NFL seasons, but he's struggled with two critical fantasy factors – touchdowns and consistency. Michael Crabtree's presence as a better red–zone weapon has limited Cooper to 11 career touchdowns. What's more, Cooper's yardage has been wildly boom or bust. In nearly 75 percent of his career games (24 of 33, counting playoffs) he has averaged a measly 43.5 yards. Marshawn Lynch, Jared Cook and Cordarrelle Patterson bring a variety of playmaking skills to Oakland that will further sink Cooper's value.
– Luke Hoover

Odell Beckham Jr., Giants

Beckham will be drafted as a top–three wide receiver, but there's reason to be wary. His targets increased each of the last three years, but his efficiency dropped each season. This season, he will have more competition for targets, as the Giants signed Brandon Marshall and drafted tight end Evan Engram 23rd overall. Additionally, Sterling Shepard is coming off a solid rookie season and running back Shane Vereen, who had 19 targets in five games last year, is healthy after a season–ending injury. Beckham can "get his" and still fail to live up to his draft cost.
– Alex Rikleen

Sammy Watkins, Bills

Ranking on talent alone, Watkins would easily place in the top 10 of receivers, but he has a lot working against him – mainly his own body. He's missed 11 games the last two seasons and last year topped 80 yards once in eight games. Watkins is still recovering from the second of two foot surgeries since the start of the 2016 season and it is uncertain if he'll be ready for training camp. Considering the risk, his price is too steep to draft him as a top–15 receiver. Perhaps his price will drop if he struggles in the preseason, making him more profitable.
– Tim Heaney

This article appears in the 2017 RotoWire Fantasy Football magazine. Order the magazine now.